India is one of the largest landmasses under crop cultivation with staple consumption of food security crops. Post green revolution (since 1967), there has been a steady March towards self-sustainability in food production. Though the general trends speak of an increase in crop yields, the detailed study on decade wise trends and fast approaching state of stagnation in crop yields is largely missing. The present manuscript is the first study examining the crop yield trends of three major food crops—wheat, rice, and maize across Indian states. The four types of regression models were fitted on the annual yield data from all the 29 Indian states over the period 1967–2017. The best-fit statistical models were chosen using the Akaike information criterion. Our results suggest that (1) Wheat yields in 13 Indian states, rice yields in eleven Indian states, and maize yields in six Indian states are now not improving. (2) The yields in ~ 76% of wheat harvested area (~ 18.5 million hectares), ~ 47% of rice harvested area (~ 19.5 million hectares), and ~ 18% of maize harvested area (~ 1.2 million hectares) are not improving for the recent decade. The detailed mapping of current crop yield trends across Indian states is the first step towards achieving a bigger goal of identifying the responsible factors affecting current crop yield trends and then identifying and recommending appropriate mitigation strategies.

中文翻译：

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印度小麦、水稻和玉米三大作物产量的时空趋势

印度是最大的农作物种植地之一，主要消费粮食安全作物。绿色革命后（自 1967 年以来），粮食生产已稳步迈向自我可持续发展。尽管总体趋势表明作物产量增加，但在很大程度上缺少对十年明智趋势和作物产量快速接近停滞状态的详细研究。本手稿是第一项研究印度各邦小麦、水稻和玉米三种主要粮食作物的作物产量趋势的研究。这四种回归模型拟合了 1967-2017 年期间印度所有 29 个邦的年产量数据。使用 Akaike 信息标准选择最适合的统计模型。我们的结果表明 (1) 印度 13 个邦的小麦产量，印度 11 个邦的稻米单产，而印度 6 个邦的玉米单产目前没有改善。(2) 约 76% 的小麦收割面积（约 1850 万公顷）、约 47% 的水稻收割面积（约 1950 万公顷）和约 18% 的玉米收割面积（约 120 万公顷）的产量不近十年来有所改善。详细绘制印度各邦当前作物产量趋势图是实现更大目标的第一步，即确定影响当前作物产量趋势的负责因素，然后确定并推荐适当的缓解策略。200 万公顷）在最近十年没有改善。详细绘制印度各邦当前作物产量趋势图是实现更大目标的第一步，即确定影响当前作物产量趋势的负责因素，然后确定并推荐适当的缓解策略。200 万公顷）在最近十年没有改善。详细绘制印度各邦当前作物产量趋势图是实现更大目标的第一步，即确定影响当前作物产量趋势的负责因素，然后确定并推荐适当的缓解策略。