The fossil record provides direct empirical data for understanding macroevolutionary patterns and processes. Inherent biases in the fossil record are well known to confound analyses of this data. Sampling bias proxies have been used as covariates in regression models to test for such biases. Proxies, such as formation count, are associated with paleobiodiversity, but are insufficient for explaining species dispersal owing to a lack of geographic context. Here, we develop a sampling bias proxy that incorporates geographic information and test it with a case study on early tetrapodomorph biogeography. We use recently-developed Bayesian phylogeographic models and a new supertree of early tetrapodomorphs to estimate dispersal rates and ancestral habitat locations. We find strong evidence that geographic sampling bias explains supposed radiations in dispersal rate (potential adaptive radiations). Our study highlights the necessity of accounting for geographic sampling bias in macroevolutionary and phylogenetic analyses and provides an approach to test for its effect.

中文翻译：

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早期的四角形生物地理学：宏观进化分析中化石记录偏差的控制。

化石记录提供了直接的经验数据，以了解宏观演化模式和过程。众所周知，化石记录中的内在偏差会混淆对这些数据的分析。抽样偏差代理已用作回归模型中的协变量，以测试此类偏差。诸如形成数量之类的代理与古生物多样性有关，但由于缺乏地理环境，不足以解释物种的扩散。在这里，我们开发了一个结合了地理信息的抽样偏差代理，并通过对早期四足动物生物地理学的案例研究对其进行了测试。我们使用最新开发的贝叶斯系统学模型和早期四足动物的新超级树来估计扩散速度和祖先的栖息地位置。我们发现有力的证据表明地理采样偏差可以解释散布速率中的假定辐射（潜在的自适应辐射）。我们的研究突出了在宏观进化和系统发育分析中考虑地理采样偏差的必要性，并提供了一种检验其影响的方法。