Aim: Paleoclimate reconstructions have enhanced our understanding of how past climates may have shaped present-day biodiversity. We hypothesize that habitat stability in historical Afrotropical refugia played a major role in the habitat suitability and persistence of chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes) during the late Quaternary. We aimed to build a dynamic model of changing habitat suitability for chimpanzees at finer spatio-temporal scales than previously available to provide a new resource for understanding their ecology, behaviour and evolution. Location: Afrotropics. Taxon: Chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes), including all four subspecies (P. t. verus, P. t. ellioti, P. t. troglodytes, P. t. schweinfurthii). Methods: We used downscaled bioclimatic variables representing monthly temperature and precipitation estimates, along with historical human population density data and an extensive database of georeferenced presence points to infer chimpanzee habitat suitability at 62 paleoclimatic time periods across the Afrotropics based on ensemble species distribution models. We map habitat stability over time using an approach that accounts for dispersal between time periods, and compare our modelled stability estimates to existing knowledge of Afrotropical refugia. Our models cover a spatial resolution of 0.0467 degrees (approximately 5.19 km2 grid cells) and a temporal resolution of every 1,000-4,000 years dating back to the the Last Interglacial (120,000 BP). Results: Our results show high habitat stability concordant with known historical forest refugia across Africa, but suggest that they are underestimated in their extent for chimpanzees. We provide the first fine-grained dynamic map of historical chimpanzee habitat suitability since the Last Interglacial which is suspected to have influenced a number of ecological-evolutionary processes, such as the emergence of complex patterns of behavioural and genetic diversity. Main Conclusions: We provide a novel resource that can be used to reveal spatio-temporally explicit insights into the role of refugia in determining chimpanzee behavioural, ecological and genetic diversity .This methodology can be applied to other taxonomic groups and geographic areas where sufficient data is available.

中文翻译：

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自上一次冰间期（120,000 BP）以来的黑猩猩（盘状穴居动物）的晚第四纪生境适应性模型

目的：古气候重建使我们更加了解过去的气候如何影响当今的生物多样性。我们假设，在第四纪晚期，具有历史意义的亚热带避难所中的栖息地稳定性在黑猩猩（Pan穴居人）的栖息地适应性和持久性中起着重要作用。我们旨在建立一个动态模型，以比以前更精细的时空尺度改变黑猩猩栖息地的适应性，从而为了解其生态，行为和进化提供新的资源。地点：非洲。分类单元：黑猩猩（盘古猿），包括所有四个亚种（P. t。verus，P。t。ellioti，P。t。troglodytes，P。t。schweinfurthii）。方法：我们使用缩减的生物气候变量来表示每月的温度和降水量估算值，结合历史人口密度数据和广泛的地理参考存在点数据库，根据集合物种分布模型，推断出非洲大陆62个古气候时期的黑猩猩栖息地的适宜性。我们使用一种解释时间间隔之间散布的方法来绘制栖息地稳定性随时间变化的图，并将我们的模型化的稳定性估算值与现有的非洲热带避难所知识进行比较。我们的模型覆盖了0.0467度（约5.19 km2的网格）的空间分辨率，以及自上一次冰间期（120,000 BP）以来每1,000-4,000年的时间分辨率。结果：我们的结果表明，与整个非洲已知的历史森林避难所相一致的高栖息地稳定性，但表明黑猩猩的栖息地范围被低估了。自上次跨冰期以来，我们提供了历史上第一张黑猩猩栖息地适宜性的细粒度动态图，该图被怀疑已经影响了许多生态进化过程，例如行为和遗传多样性的复杂模式的出现。主要结论：我们提供了一种新颖的资源，可用于揭示避难所在确定黑猩猩行为，生态和遗传多样性中的作用时空明确的见解。该方法可应用于具有足够数据的其他生物分类群和地理区域可用。例如行为和遗传多样性的复杂模式的出现。主要结论：我们提供了一种新颖的资源，可用于揭示避难所在确定黑猩猩行为，生态和遗传多样性中的作用时空明确的见解。该方法可应用于具有足够数据的其他生物分类群和地理区域可用。例如行为和遗传多样性的复杂模式的出现。主要结论：我们提供了一种新颖的资源，可用于揭示避难所在确定黑猩猩行为，生态和遗传多样性中的作用时空明确的见解。该方法可应用于具有足够数据的其他生物分类群和地理区域可用。