Sedimentation and turbidity have effects on habitat suitability in the San Francisco Bay‐Delta (Bay‐Delta), concerning key species in the bay as well as the ability of the delta marshes to keep pace with sea level rise. A daily rainfall runoff and transport model of the Sacramento River Basin of northern California was developed to simulate streamflow and suspended sediment transport to the Bay‐Delta for the next century (water years, WY2010–2099). The model was calibrated to historical streamflow and sediment data and applied using 10 Global Climate Models with two representative concentration pathways (RCP) each for WY1980–2099 from the IPCC 5th Assessment Report. Results indicate average increases in peak streamflow of +58% and +66% for the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 ensembles, respectively, by mid‐century and +62 and +96% by end‐of‐century. Sediment loads increased by +39% and +69% by end‐of‐century. Suspended sediment concentrations (SSC) increased on average by +4.6% and +6.7% for RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, by end‐of‐century. Individual scenario results varied, and statistically significant increasing trends of sediment loads to the Bay‐Delta were found for the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 ensembles and five individual scenarios. Increased suspended sediment loads may have negative effects such as contaminant transport but also have positive effects that help protect against sea level rise, increase turbidity and fish habitat, and sustain wetland habitats in the Bay‐Delta.

中文翻译：

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气候变化下的泥沙输送和径流的未来及其对旧金山湾三角洲长期复原力的影响

沉积物和浊度影响旧金山湾三角洲（Bay-Delta）的栖息地适宜性，涉及该湾中的关键物种以及三角洲沼泽地跟上海平面上升的能力。开发了加利福尼亚北部萨克拉曼多流域的每日降雨径流和输运模型，以模拟下个世纪（水域，WY2010-2099）向湾三角洲的水流和悬浮泥沙输送。根据IPCC第五次评估报告，该模型已针对历史流量和泥沙数据进行了校准，并使用10个全球气候模型进行了应用，每种模型在WY1980-2099均具有两个代表性浓度路径（RCP）。结果表明，到本世纪中叶，RCP 4.5和8.5乐团的峰值流量平均分别增加+ 58％和+ 66％，到本世纪末平均增加+62和+ 96％。到本世纪末，泥沙负荷分别增加了39％和69％。到本世纪末，RCP 4.5和8.5的悬浮沉积物浓度（SSC）平均分别增加+ 4.6％和+ 6.7％。各个方案的结果各不相同，在RCP 4.5和8.5组合以及5个单独方案中，发现海湾-三角洲的泥沙负荷具有统计学上显着的增长趋势。悬浮泥沙负荷的增加可能会带来负面影响，例如污染物的运输，但也有正面影响，有助于防止海平面上升，增加浊度和鱼类栖息地，并维持海湾三角洲的湿地栖息地。在RCP 4.5和8.5组合以及五个单独的场景中发现了海湾三角洲的泥沙负荷具有统计显着性的增长趋势。悬浮泥沙负荷的增加可能会带来负面影响，例如污染物的运输，但也有正面影响，有助于防止海平面上升，增加浊度和鱼类栖息地，并维持海湾三角洲的湿地栖息地。在RCP 4.5和8.5组合以及五个单独的场景中发现了海湾三角洲的泥沙负荷具有统计显着性的增长趋势。悬浮泥沙负荷的增加可能会带来负面影响，例如污染物的运输，但也有正面影响，有助于防止海平面上升，增加浊度和鱼类栖息地，并维持海湾三角洲的湿地栖息地。