In this study Geographic Information System (GIS) and System Dynamics (SD) were used for assessment of the impacts of storm surges on coastal communities. Storm Surges and coastal flooding were simulated using Advanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) and Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) numerical models, and spatial features of water depths, wave heights and velocities were imported into the ESRI ArcMap using Arc-StormSurge toolbox. SD and GIS were integrated to develop a Spatial System Dynamics (SSD), and applied as a single modeling framework to simulate feedback-based storm surge impacts in time and space. Total damages (direct + indirect) of storm surge events on the community elements were simulated in the SD model. In the SD model, the direct impacts were imported from GIS model through data dynamic exchange procedure, and indirect damages were considered as an estimation of related direct damage of elements in the first day of storm event, which decreases exponentially in the subsequent days. The developed model was applied to the case of Chabahar city, south-east of Iran. Seven storm scenarios were defined based on historical data and hydrodynamic modeling, and the SSD model was run for them. The best estimation of total damages was obtained after 8 days of SSD model simulation, in comparison with reference data. The assessments showed exponential trends of maximum water level rise (MWLR) in relation to the total damage estimation. The functional form of MWLR and estimated total damages was suggested to be used as a fast prediction tool for rapid assessment of storm damages.

在这项研究中，地理信息系统（GIS）和系统动力学（SD）用于评估风暴潮对沿海社区的影响。使用高级循环（ADCIRC）和近海模拟波（SWAN）数值模型对风暴潮和沿海洪水进行了模拟，并使用Arc-StormSurge工具箱将水深，波高和速度的空间特征输入到ESRI ArcMap中。将SD和GIS集成在一起以开发空间系统动力学（SSD），并将其用作单个建模框架来模拟基于反馈的风暴潮在时间和空间上的影响。在SD模型中模拟了风暴潮事件对社区要素的总破坏（直接+间接）。在SD模型中，直接影响是通过数据动态交换程序从GIS模型导入的，间接损害被认为是暴风雨事件发生第一天元素的相关直接损害的估计，在随后的几天中呈指数下降。所开发的模型应用于伊朗东南部Chabahar市。根据历史数据和流体动力学模型定义了七个风暴情景，并为其运行了SSD模型。与参考数据相比，在SSD模型仿真8天后获得了最佳的总损坏估算。评估显示最大水位上升（MWLR）相对于总损害估算的指数趋势。建议将MWLR的功能形式和估计的总损失用作快速评估风暴损害的快速预测工具。