Abstract The South of Brazil is one of the most attractive regions for timberland investments in the world. High productivity and relatively attractive timber prices have gained attention from timberland investors. However, as in most emerging countries, it is not very clear how prices are transmitted across products and markets. Having this information is essential to strategic planning as well as understand the market structure. We investigate market linkages of the stumpage price of five products (fuelwood, pulpwood, sawtimber, veneer, and special veneer) in the three main pine producing states in Brazil (Parana, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul). We use linear and regime shifting models and check the effect of external shocks on price transmission. The nonlinear process is observed main on high-grade timber (veneer and special veneer), possibly driven by their price recovery after the recession. Our results show that the spatial and between product price ratio converges back the market equilibrium within 10 months in the pine stumpage market in Brazil. This outcome indicates this market is efficient with small opportunities for arbritage profits.

中文翻译：

---

巴西松木市场的空间和跨产品价格联系

摘要 巴西南部是世界上对林地投资最具吸引力的地区之一。高生产力和相对有吸引力的木材价格引起了林地投资者的关注。然而，与大多数新兴国家一样，价格如何在产品和市场之间传递并不十分清楚。拥有这些信息对于战略规划和了解市场结构至关重要。我们调查了巴西三个主要松树生产州（巴拉那州、圣卡塔琳娜州和南里奥格兰德州）五种产品（薪材、纸浆材、锯材、单板和特殊单板）的立木价格的市场联系。我们使用线性和政权转移模型并检查外部冲击对价格传导的影响。非线性过程主要在高档木材（单板和特殊单板）上观察到，可能是受经济衰退后价格回升的推动。我们的结果表明，空间和产品价格比在 10 个月内在巴西的松木立木市场中收敛回市场均衡。这一结果表明这个市场是有效的，套利利润的机会很小。