Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions ( IF 7.2 ) Pub Date : 2020-05-16 , DOI: 10.1016/j.eist.2020.04.003 Wei Weng , Stefanie L. Becker , Matthias K.B. Lüdeke , Tobia Lakes
Mega-droughts can cause disruption to the affected society sparking a transition. We explore the causes and effects of the 2015−2016 mega-drought in Colombia. Using the multi-level perspective as a framework, we found that the mega-drought sparked an energy transition in Colombia whose dynamics were impacted both by the institutionalization of niches as well as the ability to predict the next drought. We were able to trace, using the current understanding of anthropogenic forces, the cause of the mega-drought to socio-technical landscape development influenced by human-induced warming and land use change. We found that the regimes in Bolivia and Brazil were able to influence the landscape through deforestation, and hence contribute to the intensity of a mega-drought in Colombia. The knowledge that a regime can cause disruption in regimes in other geographies and sectors has implications for transition research as well as decision-making for coping with droughts and other disasters.
中文翻译:
景观很重要:特大干旱对哥伦比亚能源转型的影响的见解
特大干旱可能对受影响的社会造成破坏,从而引发过渡。我们探索了哥伦比亚2015-2016年特大干旱的成因和影响。使用多层次视角作为框架,我们发现大干旱引发了哥伦比亚的能源转型,其动态受到壁ches的制度化以及预测下一次干旱的能力的影响。使用当前对人为力量的理解,我们能够追踪人为导致的变暖和土地利用变化对社会技术景观发展造成大干旱的原因。我们发现,玻利维亚和巴西的政权能够通过砍伐森林来影响景观,从而助长了哥伦比亚的特大干旱。