The monitoring of ecosystems and the spread of information concerning their state among human stakeholders is often a lengthy process. The importance of mutual feedbacks between socioeconomic and ecological dynamics is being increasingly recognised in recent studies, but it is generally assumed that the feedback from the environment is instantaneous, ignoring any delay in the spread of ecosystem knowledge and the resulting potential for system stability loss. On the other hand, human actors rarely make purely myopic socioeconomic decisions as is often assumed. Rather, they show a degree of foresight for future utility which may have an opposing, stabilising effect to any delay in knowledge. In this paper, we consider a generic resource-harvester model with delayed ecosystem knowledge and predictive behaviour by the harvesters. We show that delays in the spread of information about the resource level can destabilise the bioeconomic equilibrium in the system and induce harvesting cycles or the collapse of the resource. Sufficiently farsighted prediction by the harvesters can stabilise the system, provided the delay is not too long. However, if the time horizon of prediction is too long relative to the timescale of resource growth, prediction can be destabilising even in the absence of delay. The results imply that effective monitoring of ecosystems and fast dissemination of the results are necessary for their sustainable use and that efforts to promote appropriate foresight among ecosystem users on the personal and institutional level would be beneficial to the stability of coupled socioeconomic-ecological systems.

中文翻译：

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收割者的预报可以抑制由于对收割的人口状况的了解延迟而导致的资源收割周期

监视生态系统以及在人类利益相关者中传播有关其状态的信息通常是一个漫长的过程。最近的研究越来越认识到社会经济和生态动力学之间相互反馈的重要性，但是通常假定来自环境的反馈是瞬时的，而忽略了生态系统知识传播的任何延迟以及由此造成的系统稳定性损失的可能性。另一方面，人类行为者很少像通常那样做出纯粹近视的社会经济决策。相反，它们显示出对未来实用性的远见，这可能会对知识的任何延迟产生相反的，稳定的影响。在本文中，我们考虑了具有延误的生态系统知识和收割者的预测行为的通用资源收割模型。我们表明，有关资源水平的信息传播的延迟会破坏系统中的生物经济平衡并导致收获周期或资源崩溃。如果延迟时间不长，则收割机进行的远见卓识的预测可以使系统稳定。但是，如果预测的时间范围相对于资源增长的时间尺度太长，那么即使没有延迟，预测也会变得不稳定。结果表明，对生态系统进行有效监测并迅速传播其结果对于其可持续利用是必要的，而努力在个人和机构一级促进生态系统用户的适当远见将有利于社会经济生态系统的稳定。