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Simulating emergencies with transport outcomes Sim (SETOSim): Application of an agent-based decision support tool to community evacuation planning
International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction ( IF 4.2 ) Pub Date : 2020-05-15 , DOI: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101657
Hitomi Nakanishi , Sarah Wise , Yoshihiro Suenaga , Ed Manley

In the time since the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and Hurricane Katrina in 2005, an increasing number of studies have focused on developing agent-based simulations of citizen evacuation behaviours. The application of simulation to practice (i.e. evacuation planning, community disaster risk reduction strategy), however, is limited. This research aims to explore the effective application of agent-based evacuation simulation to better inform community evacuation planning through a collaborative process. The study developed an evacuation modelling tool focusing on the storm surge and flood evacuation behaviours of residents living in Takamatsu, Japan. The city of Takamatsu borders the Seto Inland Sea, an area where the risks from water-related disasters are increasing. The tidal flow of the Seto Inland Sea and storm surge flooding are simulated based on data from the 2004 typhoons, which seriously flooded the study area. An agent-based model exploring the relative vulnerability of residents as a function of location, demographic attributes including age, and previous experience is developed based on a questionnaire survey of residents which gathered information on their stated preference of evacuation. A visualisation of the simulation was shared with residents through workshops held in five neighbourhoods. It was also shared with government officials. The feedback from residents and governments officials on the effective applications to community evacuation planning are discussed and plans for future research are outlined.



中文翻译:

用运输结果模拟模拟紧急情况(SETOSim):基于代理的决策支持工具在社区疏散计划中的应用

自2004年印度洋海啸和2005年卡特里娜飓风以来,越来越多的研究专注于开发基于代理人的市民疏散行为模拟。模拟在实践中的应用(疏散计划,减少社区灾难风险策略)受到限制。本研究旨在探索基于代理的疏散模拟的有效应用,以通过协作过程更好地为社区疏散计划提供信息。该研究开发了一种疏散建模工具,重点关注居住在日本高松市的居民的风暴潮和洪水疏散行为。高松市与濑户内海接壤,濑户内陆水灾的风险在不断增加。基于2004年台风的数据模拟了濑户内海的潮汐流和风暴潮洪水,该洪水严重淹没了研究区域。基于主体的模型,根据位置,人口统计特征(包括年龄,并根据对居民的问卷调查收集了以前的经验,这些居民收集了有关他们陈述的疏散偏好的信息。通过在五个街区举行的研讨会,与居民共享了模拟的可视化效果。它也与政府官员共享。讨论了居民和政府官员对社区疏散计划的有效应用的反馈,并概述了未来的研究计划。

更新日期:2020-05-15
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