Albuquerque/Bernalillo County, New Mexico, is currently in attainment of the 2015 National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for ozone (70 ppb), but its ozone design values have increased in recent years. Air quality and source apportionment modeling with the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx) was conducted for Albuquerque/Bernalillo County to develop a refined understanding of ozone source apportionment in the region, estimate ozone concentrations in the year 2025 based on projected changes in anthropogenic emissions, and evaluate the sensitivity of future ozone concentrations to various changes in local and non-local emissions. The study focused on two ozone episodes during June and July 2017 when 8-hr average ozone concentrations were greater than 70 ppb. Based on the modeling results, ozone during the June 2017 episode was found to be driven largely by contributions from non-local and regional emissions, whereas ozone during the July 2017 episode was driven more strongly by local emissions from within Albuquerque/Bernalillo County. On high ozone days, anthropogenic emissions from within Albuquerque/Bernalillo County contributed between 8% and 19% (6-14 ppb) of total ozone. Half of this local ozone contribution was from on-road mobile sources. Fire emissions contributed as much as 2 ppb of ozone on a given day. Contributions from large power plants in New Mexico were as large as 1 ppb on a given day but less than 0.5 ppb on most days. Modeled ozone concentrations in Albuquerque/Bernalillo County were also sensitive to emissions from oil and gas emissions in New Mexico. If projected emission reductions by 2025 materialize, these reductions could reduce future peak 8-hr average ozone concentrations by as much as 3-4% compared to 2017 values.

新墨西哥州的阿尔伯克基/伯纳利洛县目前已达到2015年全国臭氧空气质量标准（NAAQS）（70 ppb），但近年来其臭氧设计价值有所提高。对阿尔伯克基/贝纳里洛县进行了带有扩展的综合空气质量模型（CAMx）的空气质量和污染源分配模型，以加深对该地区臭氧源分配的了解，并根据人为因素的预计变化估算2025年的臭氧浓度排放，并评估未来臭氧浓度对本地和非本地排放的各种变化的敏感性。该研究集中在2017年6月和2017年7月的两次臭氧事件上，当时8小时平均臭氧浓度大于70 ppb。根据建模结果，发现2017年6月事件中的臭氧主要由非本地和区域排放的贡献所驱动，而2017年7月事件中的臭氧更受Albuquerque / Bernalillo县内部的本地排放所驱动。在高臭氧日，来自阿尔伯克基/贝纳里洛县的人为排放量占臭氧总量的8％至19％（6-14 ppb）。本地臭氧贡献的一半来自公路上的移动来源。在特定的一天，火灾排放的臭氧量高达2 ppb。在给定的一天，新墨西哥州大型发电厂的排放量高达1 ppb，但在大多数情况下，都小于0.5 ppb。Albuquerque / Bernalillo县的模拟臭氧浓度对新墨西哥州的油气排放也很敏感。如果预计到2025年实现减排，