Probabilistic statements can be a valuable tool for natural hazard risk communication, including forecasts. However, individuals often have a poor understanding of such probabilistic forecasts caused by them distorting their interpretations of event likelihoods towards the end of the time window and discounting the risk today. We investigated the use of an ‘anchoring’ time statement to mitigate this bias via an opportunistic survey run after the 2013 Cook Strait earthquakes, near Wellington, New Zealand. Participants rated their interpretations of likelihoods for an immediate aftershock forecast, and for an earthquake in the future. We explored the influence of aftershock and information concern, emotions and felt shaking, gender and education, as well as preparedness actions.

The anchoring time window statement mitigated the skew in interpretations for the short (24 h to within 1 week) aftershock forecast statement. However, the skew still existed for the longer future earthquake forecast (7 days to within 1 year). We also found that heightened sensory experience (felt shaking) or emotional reactions (nervousness, fear, alertness) during the earthquakes was associated with an increase in the perceived likelihoods of future events. Gender was found to significantly influence results, with females rating higher levels of information concern and anxiety, and recording higher perceived likelihoods for the immediate aftershock forecast. Findings, including the importance of ‘anchoring’ time windows within a forecast to encourage immediate preparedness actions, support recommendations for effective crafting of these forecasts and warnings.

概率陈述可能是进行自然灾害风险沟通（包括预测）的宝贵工具。但是，由于对时间可能性的了解会扭曲他们对事件可能性的解释，从而导致人们对此类概率预测的理解不充分，从而降低了今天的风险。我们通过在新西兰惠灵顿附近的2013年库克海峡地震后进行的机会调查，研究了使用“锚定”时间陈述来减轻这种偏见。与会者对他们对即时余震预测以及未来地震的可能性的解释进行了评级。我们探讨了余震和信息关注，情绪和感觉晃动，性别和教育以及准备行动的影响。

锚定时间窗口声明减轻了短期（24小时至1周内）震后预报声明的解释偏差。但是，对于更长的未来地震预报（7天到一年之内）仍然存在偏斜。我们还发现，地震期间感觉体验（晃动）或情感反应（紧张，恐惧，机敏）的增强与未来事件的感知可能性增加有关。发现性别对结果有重大影响，女性对信息关注和焦虑的评价较高，并为直接余震预报记录了较高的感知可能性。发现，包括在预测中“固定”时间窗口对鼓励立即采取行动的重要性，