The continued rise of global disaster losses pushes our attention yet further to the causal factors that drive risks, beyond the frame of standardised risk assessment models. A key gap in our understanding of the causality of disasters remains establishing how spatially and temporally distant factors – ‘root causes’ – drive local risk conditions. This is particularly the case for small-scale but high-impact disasters. It includes understanding the role that institutions play in influencing such pathways of risk production. This paper addresses this question using a holistic approach to risk analysis that links past drivers to contemporary conditions. We apply this in three case studies of coastal flood management in urban areas of differential size and integration within the European Union - Rethymno (Crete), Genoa (Italy) and St Maarten (Dutch Caribbean). The paper reveals the importance of local institutions in mediating the impacts of higher-level economic and political changes on local risks. It provides new empirical evidence of the relationship between austerity, institutional reform and local disaster risk reduction. The analysis supports a stronger causal epistemology of resilience to disasters but also leads to re-consideration of the institutional entry points for risk reduction, and the importance of considering context and trade-offs.

全球灾难损失的持续增加使我们更加关注引起风险的因果因素，这超出了标准化风险评估模型的框架。我们对灾难因果关系的理解中的一个主要差距仍然是确定时空因素（“根本原因”）如何驱动当地的风险状况。对于小规模但影响重大的灾难尤其如此。它包括了解机构在影响此类风险产生途径中的作用。本文使用整体方法进行风险分析来解决此问题，该方法将过去的驱动因素与当代情况联系起来。我们将此方法应用在欧盟内部不同规模和一体化程度的城市地区沿海洪水管理的三个案例研究中-罗希姆诺（Crete），热那亚（意大利）和圣马丁（荷兰加勒比）。本文揭示了地方机构在调解高层经济和政治变化对地方风险的影响方面的重要性。它提供了紧缩，机构改革和减少本地灾害风险之间关系的新经验证据。该分析支持对灾害抵御能力的更强的因果认识论，但也导致重新考虑降低风险的机构切入点，以及考虑环境和权衡取舍的重要性。