Abstract The Amazon forest’s main protection against fire is its capacity to create a moist understory microclimate. Roads, deforestation, droughts, and climate change have made this natural firebreak less effective. The southern Amazon, in particular, has become more flammable and vulnerable to wildfires during recent droughts. The drought of 1997/98 first showed that fires could escape from agricultural fields and burn standing primary forests that were once considered impenetrable to fire. The spread of forest fires during other 21st-century droughts suggests that this pattern may well be the new normal. With the landscape becoming more flammable, reducing sources of ignition and the negative effects of deforestation is crucial for avoiding severe degradation of Amazon forests. Unfortunately, recent increases in deforestation suggest that Brazil is moving in the opposite direction. Keeping pace with the rapid changes in the region’s fire regimes would require innovation; cooperation across political boundaries; and interagency communication on a scale never seen before. While Brazil’s past success in reducing deforestation suggests that it could be an effective leader in this regard, its sluggish response to the 2019 fires tells quite a different story. But the fact remains that the future of the Amazon depends on decisive action now.

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亚马逊野火：可预见灾难的场景

摘要 亚马逊森林的主要防火保护是其创造潮湿林下小气候的能力。道路、森林砍伐、干旱和气候变化使这种自然防火的效果降低。尤其是亚马逊南部地区，在最近的干旱期间变得更加易燃，更容易受到野火的影响。1997/98 年的干旱首先表明，火可以从农田中逃逸，并烧毁曾经被认为无法被火烧毁的原始森林。21 世纪其他干旱期间森林火灾的蔓延表明，这种模式很可能成为新常态。随着景观变得更加易燃，减少火源和森林砍伐的负面影响对于避免亚马逊森林严重退化至关重要。很遗憾，最近森林砍伐的增加表明巴西正朝着相反的方向发展。跟上该地区火灾状况的快速变化需要创新；跨越政治界限的合作；以及前所未有的跨机构沟通。尽管巴西过去在减少森林砍伐方面取得的成功表明它可以成为这方面的有效领导者，但其对 2019 年火灾的缓慢反应却讲述了一个完全不同的故事。但事实仍然是，亚马逊的未来取决于现在的果断行动。虽然巴西过去在减少森林砍伐方面取得的成功表明它可以成为这方面的有效领导者，但其对 2019 年火灾的缓慢反应却讲述了一个完全不同的故事。但事实仍然是，亚马逊的未来取决于现在的果断行动。尽管巴西过去在减少森林砍伐方面取得的成功表明它可以成为这方面的有效领导者，但其对 2019 年火灾的缓慢反应却讲述了一个完全不同的故事。但事实仍然是，亚马逊的未来取决于现在的果断行动。