Abstract The past century has witnessed a global trend of increasing green house gas emissions, causing a rise in temperatures, changing hydroclimatic patterns and increasing occurrence of climatic extremes. Despite their importance for environmental conservation, scientific research and forest management, primary montane forests of the Dinaric Mts remain insufficiently studied. In this study, we examined the relationship between climate and growth of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) H. Karst.) and silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) in the primary forests of Smrceve doline, located in Northern Velebit National Park, Croatia. Using dendrochronological methods, the temporal relationships between tree ring width (TRW) and blue intensity (BI) were assessed over the 1901–2014 interval, in relation to instrumental climatic data, including temperature, precipitation and self‐calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI). TRW and earlywood BI (EWBI) chronologies of both species exhibited a clear negative response to summer temperatures, while also showing a positive relationship with summer precipitation and moisture, implying that tree growth in the region is water-limited. Generally, correlation values of EWBI were stronger compared to the TRW chronologies. Although both species showed a degree of common growth response to climatic extremes, the strength of correlations with the most responsive climatic variables was temporally unstable and showed considerable variability in both tree ring parameters. The observed differential response of the two species to climate indicates that the anticipated increase in dry conditions due to climate change could potentially alter the future development and composition of these primary forests by shifting competitive pressures in favor of silver fir. Increasing drought stress around the Mediterranean could have major negative implications for these water-limited primary forests.

中文翻译：

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克罗地亚第纳尔山脉原始森林中挪威云杉和银杉的气候生长关系

摘要 过去一个世纪以来，全球温室气体排放呈增加趋势，导致气温升高、水文气候模式发生变化、极端气候事件增多。尽管它们对环境保护、科学研究和森林管理很重要，但迪纳里克山的原始山地森林仍未得到充分研究。在这项研究中，我们研究了气候与挪威云杉 (Picea abies (L.) H. Karst.) 和银冷杉 (Abies alba Mill.) 之间的关系，它们位于北韦莱比特国家公园的 Smrceve doline 的原始森林中， 克罗地亚。使用树木年代学方法，评估了 1901-2014 年区间树木年轮宽度 (TRW) 和蓝色强度 (BI) 之间的时间关系，与仪器气候数据有关，包括温度、降水和自校准帕尔默干旱严重程度指数 (scPDSI)。两个物种的 TRW 和早木 BI (EWBI) 年表对夏季温度表现出明显的负面反应，同时也显示出与夏季降水和水分的正相关关系，这意味着该地区的树木生长是受水限制的。通常，与 TRW 年表相比，EWBI 的相关值更强。尽管这两个物种对极端气候表现出一定程度的共同生长反应，但与最敏感的气候变量的相关强度在时间上不稳定，并且在两个年轮参数中都表现出相当大的可变性。观察到的这两个物种对气候的不同反应表明，由于气候变化，干旱条件的预期增加可能会通过将竞争压力转移到有利于银杉的一方来潜在地改变这些原始森林的未来发展和组成。地中海周围不断增加的干旱压力可能对这些缺水的原始森林产生重大的负面影响。