A process-based simulation model for the grapevine-downy mildew pathosystem was developed in order to quantitatively synthesize the literature available and to provide a tool to guide strategic decisions for disease management. The model includes: i) the main processes involved in the disease dual epidemics on leaves and clusters, from inoculum mobilisation to disease multiplication on foliage, and to infection of clusters; and ii) host dynamics, i.e. crop development, growth, and physiological and disease-induced senescence. A numerical evaluation was performed to investigate the response of the model to changes of the main epidemiological parameters, i.e. the basic infection rate corrected for the removals (R_cOPT), the duration of latency period (LP), the duration of infectious period (IP), and the rate of primary infections (P). Increasing values of R_cOPT and IP, and decreasing values of LP resulted in a faster increase of the epidemic on both foliage and clusters, while decreasing values of P delayed epidemics. The simulated dynamics of epidemics on foliage and clusters conformed to patterns of dual epidemics observed for downy mildew. The model can be useful for investigating the effect of strategic disease management tools such as the use of resistant varieties or to investigate the behaviour of the pathosystem under scenarios of climate change.

为了量化合成现有文献并提供指导疾病管理战略决策的工具，开发了基于过程的葡萄-霜霉病病原菌模拟模型。该模型包括：i）叶片和簇上疾病双重流行的主要过程，从动员接种物到叶子上的疾病繁殖，再到簇的感染；ii）宿主动态，即作物生长，生长以及生理和疾病引起的衰老。进行了数值评估，以调查模型对主要流行病学参数变化的响应，即针对去除率校正的基本感染率（R _cOPT），潜伏期的持续时间（LP），传染期的持续时间（IP）和原发感染率（P）。R _c OPT和IP的值增加，而LP的值减少，导致叶子和簇上的流行病增加更快，而P值的减少则延迟了流行病。叶片和簇上流行病的模拟动力学符合霜霉病双重流行的模式。该模型可用于调查战略性疾病管理工具（例如使用抗性品种）的效果或调查气候变化情况下的病理系统行为。