The building sector contributes significantly to global energy consumption and CO₂ emissions. It is urgent to reduce them through the retrofit of the current building stock and improvements in new building designs. The energy performance contracts that can deliver energy consumption savings must have an attractive rate of return to make financial sense for public and private sector buildings. These contracts must also have a wide uptake in the market to improve significantly the energy performance of the building stock. This paper develops a hybrid bottom up and system dynamics modelling framework to: (1) explore the diffusion of energy performance contracts and its effect on operational building energy consumption and (2) facilitate integration into policy making. The bottom up modelling component is used to provide estimates of potential operational building energy use savings. The estimates are the input to the system dynamics diffusion model which is used to explore diffusion pathways of energy performance contracts. The framework will facilitate scenario and policy analysis for the diffusion of the contracts on the building stock and their potential impact on energy consumption and associated CO₂ emissions.

中文翻译：

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低碳能源绩效合同扩散的建模框架

建筑行业对全球能源消耗和CO ₂做出了重大贡献排放。迫切需要通过对当前建筑物的改造和新建筑物设计的改进来减少这些损失。可以节省能源的能源绩效合同必须具有有吸引力的回报率，以使公共和私营部门建筑物具有财务意义。这些合同还必须在市场上得到广泛采用，以显着提高建筑材料的能源性能。本文开发了一种混合的自下而上和系统动力学建模框架，以：（1）探索能源绩效合同的扩散及其对运营建筑能耗的影响，以及（2）促进与政策制定的整合。自下而上的建模组件用于提供对潜在的运营建筑能耗节省的估计。估计值是系统动力学扩散模型的输入，该模型用于探索能源绩效合同的扩散途径。该框架将促进情景和政策分析，以分散建筑合同的合同及其对能源消耗和相关CO的潜在影响₂排放。