Abstract Nysius simulans (Stål) is a suctorial, fluid feeding herbivore that can transmit toxins and spread pathogens via saliva and is an economically important pest for soybean in South America. Currently, N. simulans in soybean is predominantly found in Argentina, but future changes in the distribution from both dispersal and range shifts due to climate change may affect soybean cultivation in southern South America. We developed a species distribution model to examine the distribution range of N. simulans. We compared the potential distribution of N. simulans under current and future projected climatic conditions in order to identify future areas of natural occurrence with ecological niche models using Maxent. Current records of N. simulans show that while the species is present in Argentina, and some areas of Brazil, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay, our models suggest that many new suitable areas will be available for N. simulans under climate change including other regions of Argentina, and southern Chile. Our results also predict potential future range shifts and distributions into Bolivia, but not Peru nor Brazil. In our model, seasonal trends in temperature were shown to have the greatest contribution to the potential distribution, whereas isothermality (i.e., temperature variability) was correlated to potential future distribution ranges. We conclude that current populations of N. simulans may be expanding its distribution range by diffusion (i.e., range expansion over generations at the margins of populations), and regions with potential future N. simulans distribution should be closely monitored.

中文翻译：

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当前和未来气候下南美洲大豆作物中的拟斑蝽（半翅目：蝽科）的潜在分布


摘要 Nysius simulans (Stål) 是一种吸液、食液草食动物，可以通过唾液传播毒素和传播病原体，是南美洲大豆的重要经济害虫。目前，大豆中的仿猪笼草主要分布在阿根廷，但未来气候变化导致的分布和范围变化可能会影响南美洲南部的大豆种植。我们开发了一个物种分布模型来检查拟假猪笼草的分布范围。我们比较了模拟猪笼草在当前和未来预测气候条件下的潜在分布，以便使用 Maxent 的生态位模型确定未来自然发生的区域。目前模拟猪笼草的记录显示，虽然该物种存在于阿根廷以及巴西、巴拉圭、秘鲁和乌拉圭的一些地区，但我们的模型表明，在气候变化下，许多新的适合模拟猪笼草的地区，包括其他地区阿根廷和智利南部。我们的结果还预测了未来潜在的范围转移和分布到玻利维亚，但不是秘鲁或巴西。在我们的模型中，温度的季节性趋势对潜在分布的贡献最大，而等温性（即温度变化）与潜在的未来分布范围相关。我们的结论是，目前的模拟猪笼草种群可能通过扩散扩大了其分布范围（即，在种群边缘的几代范围内扩大），并且应密切监测未来模拟猪笼草分布的区域。