COVID-19 pandemic in France Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) exacted a heavy toll in France during March and April 2020. Quarantine measures were effective in reducing transmission by 84%, and some relaxation of social isolation was expected in May. Salje et al. fit transmission models for the epidemic in France to hospital admissions. The authors forecast that 2.9 million people will have been infected by 11 May, representing 4.4% of the population—a value inadequate for herd immunity. Daily critical care hospitalizations should reduce from several hundreds to tens of cases, but control will remain a delicate balancing act. Any relaxation of lockdown in France will have to be carefully controlled and monitored to avoid undermining more optimistic forecasts. Science, this issue p. 208 Analysis of COVID-19 epidemiological parameters in France shows clear age and sex patterns that are likely to be common to other countries. France has been heavily affected by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic and went into lockdown on 17 March 2020. Using models applied to hospital and death data, we estimate the impact of the lockdown and current population immunity. We find that 2.9% of infected individuals are hospitalized and 0.5% of those infected die (95% credible interval: 0.3 to 0.9%), ranging from 0.001% in those under 20 years of age to 8.3% in those 80 years of age or older. Across all ages, men are more likely to be hospitalized, enter intensive care, and die than women. The lockdown reduced the reproductive number from 2.90 to 0.67 (77% reduction). By 11 May 2020, when interventions are scheduled to be eased, we project that 3.5 million people (range: 2.1 million to 6.0 million), or 5.3% of the population (range: 3.3 to 9.3%), will have been infected. Population immunity appears to be insufficient to avoid a second wave if all control measures are released at the end of the lockdown.

中文翻译：

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估计法国 SARS-CoV-2 的负担

法国新冠肺炎 (COVID-19) 疫情 2019 年 3 月和 4 月期间，2019 年冠状病毒病 (COVID-19) 在法国造成了严重伤亡。隔离措施有效减少了 84% 的传播，预计 5 月份社会隔离措施将有所放松。萨尔杰等人。将法国流行病的传播模型与入院情况相匹配。作者预测，到 5 月 11 日，将有 290 万人被感染，占总人口的 4.4%，这个值不足以实现群体免疫。每日重症监护住院病例应从数百例减少到数十例，但控制仍将是一个微妙的平衡行为。法国任何放松封锁的举措都必须受到仔细控制和监测，以避免破坏更乐观的预测。科学，本期第 14 页。208 对法国 COVID-19 流行病学参数的分析显示出明显的年龄和性别模式，这可能在其他国家很常见。法国受到严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒 2 (SARS-CoV-2) 大流行的严重影响，并于 2020 年 3 月 17 日进入封锁状态。利用应用于医院和死亡数据的模型，我们估计了封锁和当前人口免疫力的影响。我们发现，2.9% 的感染者住院治疗，0.5% 的感染者死亡（95% 可信区间：0.3% 至 0.9%），范围从 20 岁以下人群的 0.001% 到 80 岁以上人群的 8.3%。年纪大了。在所有年龄段中，男性比女性更有可能住院、进入重症监护室和死亡。封锁将繁殖数从 2.90 减少到 0.67（减少了 77%）。到 2020 年 5 月 11 日，当干预措施计划放松时，我们预计将有 350 万人（范围：210 万至 600 万）或人口的 5.3%（范围：3.3% 至 9.3%）被感染。如果在封锁结束时解除所有控制措施，人口免疫力似乎不足以避免第二波疫情。