In this study, three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and 15 general circulation models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 were used to assess the behaviour of precipitation (P) and surface air temperature (SAT) over part of the Songhua River Basin. The Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model linked with SAT and P was used for monthly simulation of streamflow to assess the influence of land use/land cover and climate change on the streamflow. The results suggest that, under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the SAT over the study area may increase in the 21st century by 1.12, 2.44 and 5.82°C, respectively. Moreover, by the middle of the 21st century, streamflow in the basin may have decreased by 19%. The decrease in streamflow may be due to changed land use conditions and water withdrawal, having critical implications for management and future planning of water resources in the basin.

在这项研究中，耦合模型比较项目第5阶段的三个代表性浓度路径（RCPs）和15个普通循环模型被用来评估松花江流域部分地区的降水（P）和地表气温（SAT）行为。与SAT和P链接的水评估和计划（WEAP）模型每月用于模拟流量，以评估土地利用/土地覆盖和气候变化对流量的影响。结果表明，在RCP2.6，RCP4.5和RCP8.5下，研究区域的SAT在21世纪可能分别增加1.12、2.44和5.82°C。而且，到21世纪中叶，流域的水流量可能减少了19％。流量减少可能是由于土地使用条件和取水量的变化，对流域水资源的管理和未来规划产生了重要影响。