A statistical procedure is developed to adjust natural streamflows simulated by dynamical models in downstream reaches, to account for anthropogenic impairments to flow that are not considered in the model. The resulting normalized downstream flows are appropriate for use in assessments of future anthropogenically impaired flows in downstream reaches. The normalization is applied to assess the potential effects of climate change on future water availability on the Rio Grande at a gage just above the major storage reservoir on the river. Model‐simulated streamflow values were normalized using a statistical parameterization based on two constants that relate observed and simulated flows over a 50‐year historical baseline period (1964–2013). The first normalization constant is a ratio of the means, and the second constant is the ratio of interannual standard deviations between annual gaged and simulated flows. This procedure forces the gaged and simulated flows to have the same mean and variance over the baseline period. The normalization constants can be kept fixed for future flows, which effectively assumes that upstream water management does not change in the future, or projected management changes can be parameterized by adjusting the constants. At the gage considered in this study, the effect of the normalization is to reduce simulated historical flow values by an average of 72% over an ensemble of simulations, indicative of the large fraction of natural flow diverted from the river upstream from the gage. A weak tendency for declining flow emerges upon averaging over a large ensemble, with tremendous variability among the simulations. By the end of the 21st Century the higher‐emission scenarios show more pronounced declines in streamflow.

中文翻译：

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适应河流的气候模型预测以解决上游人为损害

开发了一种统计程序来调整下游河段动力学模型模拟的自然水流，以解决模型中未考虑的人为水流损害。所得的标准化下游流量适用于评估下游河段未来人为减损的流量。归一化用于评估气候变化对里奥格兰德州未来可用水量的潜在影响，该测量仪位于河上主要储水库正上方的一个量具上。使用基于两个常数的统计参数化对模型模拟的流量值进行归一化，这两个常数关联了50年历史基准期内（1964-2013年）的观测流量和模拟流量。第一个归一化常数是均值的比率，第二个常数是年流量和模拟流量之间的年际标准差之比。此过程迫使基准流量和模拟流量在基线期间具有相同的均值和方差。归一化常数可以为将来的流量保持固定，这可以有效地假设上游水管理将来不会改变，或者可以通过调整常数来参数化预计的管理变化。在本研究中考虑的量具中，归一化的效果是在一组模拟中将模拟历史流量值平均降低72％，这表明从量具上游的河流转移了很大一部分自然流量。在大型集合中进行平均后，出现了流量下降的弱趋势，而模拟之间存在很大的差异。