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Climate change impacts on agriculture's southern frontier – Perspectives for farming in North Patagonia
International Journal of Climatology ( IF 3.5 ) Pub Date : 2020-05-13 , DOI: 10.1002/joc.6649 Ricardo del Barrio 1, 2 , Eduardo Fernandez 3 , Andrea S. Brendel 2, 4 , Cory Whitney 3 , José A. Campoy 5 , Eike Luedeling 3
International Journal of Climatology ( IF 3.5 ) Pub Date : 2020-05-13 , DOI: 10.1002/joc.6649 Ricardo del Barrio 1, 2 , Eduardo Fernandez 3 , Andrea S. Brendel 2, 4 , Cory Whitney 3 , José A. Campoy 5 , Eike Luedeling 3
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Winter chill is expected to decrease in many of the suitable growing regions for deciduous trees. Argentinean North Patagonia hosts extensive fruit tree cultivation, which provides an important contribution to both local and global food security. Using historic records from 11 weather stations from North Patagonia, we evaluate the possible impacts of climate change on fruit tree cultivation. We assess winter chill and seasonal heat availability, and the risk of spring frost events based on outputs from 15 Global Climate Models (GCMs) for two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios and two future time periods (represented by central years 2050 and 2085). Metrics were estimated for 47 years of records from the weather stations, as well as typical conditions for 10 past scenarios and 60 future GCM and RCP projections. Scenarios consisted of 100 plausible annual temperature records produced by a weather generator. Results suggest that fruit tree dormancy in Argentinean North Patagonia will not be strongly affected by climate change. Compared to the past, winter chill may only decrease by 9% in the RCP4.5 scenario by 2050 in the northeastern and eastern subregion, while in the central‐south and west the reduction seems unlikely to exceed 6% by the same RCP scenario and year. Our models project stable high growing season heat in the northeastern and eastern regions, and major increases in the south by 2085 in both RCP scenarios. Projections of spring frost events varied between 0 and about 25 hours below 0°C depending on the site. Increasing heat availability may create opportunities for fruit and nut growers to introduce new species and cultivars to the region. Our results provide a basis for planning such introductions and for enabling growers to exploit new opportunities for producing temperate orchard crops beyond their traditional ranges.
中文翻译：
气候变化对农业南部边境的影响–北巴塔哥尼亚的农业前景
预计许多适合落叶树生长的地区的冬季寒冷将减少。阿根廷北巴塔哥尼亚拥有大量的果树种植，这对当地和全球的粮食安全都做出了重要贡献。利用北巴塔哥尼亚北部11个气象站的历史记录，我们评估了气候变化对果树种植的可能影响。我们基于两种代表性浓度路径（RCP）情景和两个未来时间段（分别由2050年和2085年中位数表示）的15个全球气候模型（GCM）的输出，评估了冬季的寒冷和季节性热量供应以及春季霜冻事件的风险。 。估算了气象站47年记录的度量标准，以及10个过去情景以及60个未来GCM和RCP预测的典型条件。方案由天气生成器产生的100个合理的年度温度记录组成。结果表明，阿根廷北巴塔哥尼亚的果树休眠不会受到气候变化的强烈影响。与过去相比，到2050年，东北和东部次区域的RCP4.5情景中，冬季寒冷可能仅减少9％，而在相同的RCP情景中，中南部和西部的降温幅度似乎不太可能超过6％。年。我们的模型预测，在两种RCP情景下，东北和东部地区的生长季热量将稳定，到2085年南部将大幅增加。春季霜冻事件的预估值在0°C以下0到25小时之间变化，具体取决于位置。供热量的增加可能会为水果和坚果种植者创造机会向该地区引进新品种和新品种。
更新日期：2020-05-13
中文翻译：
气候变化对农业南部边境的影响–北巴塔哥尼亚的农业前景
预计许多适合落叶树生长的地区的冬季寒冷将减少。阿根廷北巴塔哥尼亚拥有大量的果树种植，这对当地和全球的粮食安全都做出了重要贡献。利用北巴塔哥尼亚北部11个气象站的历史记录，我们评估了气候变化对果树种植的可能影响。我们基于两种代表性浓度路径（RCP）情景和两个未来时间段（分别由2050年和2085年中位数表示）的15个全球气候模型（GCM）的输出，评估了冬季的寒冷和季节性热量供应以及春季霜冻事件的风险。 。估算了气象站47年记录的度量标准，以及10个过去情景以及60个未来GCM和RCP预测的典型条件。方案由天气生成器产生的100个合理的年度温度记录组成。结果表明，阿根廷北巴塔哥尼亚的果树休眠不会受到气候变化的强烈影响。与过去相比，到2050年，东北和东部次区域的RCP4.5情景中，冬季寒冷可能仅减少9％，而在相同的RCP情景中，中南部和西部的降温幅度似乎不太可能超过6％。年。我们的模型预测，在两种RCP情景下，东北和东部地区的生长季热量将稳定，到2085年南部将大幅增加。春季霜冻事件的预估值在0°C以下0到25小时之间变化，具体取决于位置。供热量的增加可能会为水果和坚果种植者创造机会向该地区引进新品种和新品种。
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