1. Many aquatic ecosystems are experiencing multiple anthropogenic stressors that threaten their ability to support ecologically and economically important fish species. Two of the most ubiquitous stressors are climate change and non‐point source nutrient pollution.
2. Agricultural conservation practices (ACPs, i.e. farming practices that reduce runoff, prevent erosion, and curb excessive nutrient loading) offer a potential means to mitigate the negative effects of non‐point source pollution on fish populations. However, our understanding of how ACP implementation amidst a changing climate will affect fish production in large ecosystems that receive substantial upstream sediment and nutrient inputs remains incomplete.
3. Towards this end, we explored how anticipated climate change and the implementation of realistic ACPs might alter the recruitment dynamics of three fish populations (native walleye Sander vitreus and yellow perch Perca flavescens and invasive white perch Morone americana) in the highly productive, dynamic west basin of Lake Erie. We projected future (2020–2065) recruitment under different combinations of anticipated climate change (n = 2 levels) and ACP implementation (n = 4 levels) in the western Lake Erie catchment using predictive biological models driven by forecasted winter severity, spring warming rate, and Maumee River total phosphorus loads that were generated from linked climate, catchment‐hydrology, and agricultural‐practice‐simulation models.
4. In general, our models projected reduced walleye and yellow perch recruitment whereas invasive white perch recruitment was projected to remain stable or increase relative to the recent past. Our modelling also suggests the potential for trade‐offs, as ACP implementation was projected to reduce yellow perch recruitment with anticipated climate change.
5. Overall, our study presents a useful modelling framework to forecast fish recruitment in Lake Erie and elsewhere, as well as offering projections and new avenues of research that could help resource management agencies and policy‐makers develop adaptive and resilient management strategies in the face of anticipated climate and land‐management change.

中文翻译：

---

预测预期的气候变化和农业保护措施对伊利湖鱼类招募动态的综合影响

1. 许多水生生态系统正经历着多种人为压力，这威胁到它们对生态和经济上重要鱼类的支持能力。气候变化和非点源养分污染是最普遍的两个压力源。
2. 农业保护措施（ACP，即减少径流，防止侵蚀和抑制过多养分的农业措施）提供了减轻面源污染对鱼类种群的不利影响的潜在手段。但是，我们对气候变化中ACP的实施将如何影响大型生态系统中鱼类产量的理解尚不完善，这些大型生态系统中有大量上游沉积物和养分投入。
3. 为此，我们探讨了预期的气候变化和实际ACP的实施如何在高产，活跃的西部盆地中改变三种鱼类（本地角膜白斑桑德玻璃体和黄鲈Perca flavescens和侵入性白鲈Morone americana）的捕捞动态。伊利湖。我们预计在预期气候变化（n  = 2级）和ACP实施（n =伊利湖西部流域的4个水平），是由预测的冬季严酷性，春季增温率和莫米河总磷负荷所产生的预测生物学模型所产生的，这些负荷是由相关的气候，流域水文学和农业实践模拟模型产生的。
4. 总的来说，我们的模型预计减少的红眼鲈和黄鲈的募集，而侵入性的白鲈的募集相对于最近的过去预计将保持稳定或增加。我们的模型还表明了折衷的可能性，因为预计实施ACP可以减少因预期的气候变化而引起的黄鲈招募。
5. 总的来说，我们的研究提供了一个有用的建模框架，可以预测伊利湖和其他地方的鱼类招募，并提供预测和新的研究途径，可以帮助资源管理机构和政策制定者面对预期的情况制定适应性强的管理策略气候和土地管理变化。