Abstract Organic food has important environmental and health benefits, decreasing the toxicity of agricultural production, improving soil quality, and overall resilience of farming. Increasing consumers’ demand for organic food reinforces the rate of organic farming adoption and the level of farmers' risk acceptance. Despite the recorded 20% growth in organically managed farmland, its global land area is still far less than expected, only 1.4%. Increasing demand for organic food is an important pathway towards sustainable food systems. We explore this consumer-centric approach by developing a theoretically- and empirically-grounded agent-based model. Three behavioral theories – theory of planned behavior, alphabet theory, and goal-framing – describe individual food purchasing decisions in response to policies. We take wine sector as an example to calibrate and validate the model for the case study of Sydney, Australia. The discrepancy between consumer intention and purchasing behavior for organic wine can be explained by a locked-in vicious cycle. We assess the effectiveness of different policies such as wine taxation, and informational-education campaigns to influence consumer choices. The model shows that these interventions are non-additive: raising consumer awareness and increasing tax on less environmentally friendly wines simultaneously is more successful in promoting organic wine than the sum of the two policies introduced separately. The phenomenon of undercover altruism amplifies the preference for organic wine, and the tipping point occurs at around 35% diffusion rate in the population. This research suggests policy implications to help decision-makers in the food sector make informed decisions about organic markets.

中文翻译：

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探索有机食品采用中的消费者行为和政策选择：来自澳大利亚葡萄酒行业的见解

摘要 有机食品具有重要的环境和健康益处，可以降低农业生产的毒性、改善土壤质量和农业的整体恢复力。不断增加的消费者对有机食品的需求加强了有机农业的采用率和农民的风险接受程度。尽管有机管理的农田录得20%的增长，但其全球土地面积仍远低于预期，仅为1.4%。增加对有机食品的需求是实现可持续食品系统的重要途径。我们通过开发基于理论和经验的基于代理的模型来探索这种以消费者为中心的方法。三种行为理论——计划行为理论、字母表理论和目标框架——描述了针对政策的个人食品购买决策。我们以葡萄酒行业为例，以澳大利亚悉尼为例，对模型进行校准和验证。有机葡萄酒的消费者意图和购买行为之间的差异可以用锁定的恶性循环来解释。我们评估了影响消费者选择的不同政策（例如葡萄酒税和信息教育活动）的有效性。该模型表明，这些干预措施是非累加的：与单独引入的两项政策的总和​​相比，同时提高消费者意识和增加对不太环保的葡萄酒的税收在推广有机葡萄酒方面更成功。卧底利他现象放大了对有机葡萄酒的偏好，临界点出现在人群中35%左右的扩散率。