A rapid and long-traveling landslide was triggered by a monsoon rainfall of a total of 446.5 mm for 3 days in the Aranayake area, Sri Lanka. The landslide destroyed 75 houses and killed 127 persons along the course of this landslide. The mechanism of this landslide was investigated by a joint team of the International Consortium on Landslides (ICL) and the National Building Research Organization (NBRO) of the Government of Sri Lanka in 2017 and 2018; the investigation was part of the WCoE and IPL projects. Physical properties of soil samples taken from the source area of the Aranayake landslide were examined through a series of undrained ring-shear tests, and the measured properties were used in a numerical method, LS-RAPID, to simulate initiations and motions of landslides in this area. The authors then tried to first reproduce a landslide, which was considered, from available pieces of evidence, to have most likely happened in the past, then, to assess the risk of a potential future landslide that is expected to occur close to the 2016 Aranayake landslide. Two possible sliding surfaces were assumed to develop through the soil mass, one along the boundary between the weathered surface soil and the jointed bedrock and another along a potential aquiclude inside the soil. This attempt to estimate movements of both past and future landslides based on the numerical reproduction of the 2016 Aranayake landslide hazard will help develop landslide hazard assessment technologies.

中文翻译：

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2016 年斯里兰卡 Aranayake 滑坡邻近斜坡过去和未来滑坡灾害的估计

斯里兰卡 Aranayake 地区连续 3 天的季风降雨量达 446.5 毫米，引发了一场快速而漫长的滑坡。山体滑坡摧毁了 75 间房屋，并在山体滑坡过程中造成 127 人死亡。2017年和2018年，国际滑坡联盟（ICL）和斯里兰卡政府国家建筑研究组织（NBRO）的联合团队对此次滑坡的机理进行了调查；该调查是 WCoE 和 IPL 项目的一部分。取自 Aranayake 滑坡源区的土壤样品的物理性质通过一系列不排水环剪试验进行了检查，并将测量的性质用于数值方法 LS-RAPID，以模拟该滑坡的起始和运动。区域。然后作者试图首先再现山体滑坡，根据现有证据，这被认为最有可能发生在过去，然后，评估预计将在 2016 年 Aranayake 滑坡附近发生的潜在未来滑坡的风险。假定通过土体形成两个可能的滑动面，一个沿着风化表层土壤和节理基岩之间的边界，另一个沿着土壤内部的潜在隔水层。这种基于 2016 年 Aranayake 滑坡灾害的数值再现来估计过去和未来滑坡运动的尝试将有助于开发滑坡灾害评估技术。假定通过土体形成两个可能的滑动面，一个沿着风化表层土壤和节理基岩之间的边界，另一个沿着土壤内部的潜在隔水层。这种基于 2016 年 Aranayake 滑坡灾害的数值再现来估计过去和未来滑坡运动的尝试将有助于开发滑坡灾害评估技术。假定通过土体形成两个可能的滑动面，一个沿着风化表层土壤和节理基岩之间的边界，另一个沿着土壤内部的潜在隔水层。这种基于 2016 年 Aranayake 滑坡灾害的数值再现来估计过去和未来滑坡运动的尝试将有助于开发滑坡灾害评估技术。