Abstract

At present, electronic systems are thermally designed on the basis of the assumption that all the parameters and factors that determine the thermal processes are fully known and unambiguously determined, id est, that they are determinate. However, the practice of creation and operation of real electronic systems shows that the real values of determining parameters and factors, as well as the thermal processes and temperature distributions, are uncertain and can take any values within some intervals of their variation with an equal probability. The disregard for the interval stochastic character of the thermal processes leads to design errors and development of uncompetitive electronic systems. This article elaborates a method that permits modeling non-stationary interval stochastic thermal processes in an electronic system at interval uncertainty of input factors and parameters. The method is based on obtaining equations for non-stationary statistical measures (mathematical expectations, variances, mean square deviations, and covariances) of thermal processes at specified statistical measures of input data. The article gives an example of applying the elaborated method to thermal processes in a real electronic system that consists of electronic modules with printed circuit boards, as well as integrated microcircuits, resistors, and other electronic components installed on them.

中文翻译：

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电子设备中的热过程不确定性

摘要

当前，基于以下假设来热设计电子系统：所有确定热过程的参数和因素是众所周知的，并且明确确定它们是确定的。但是，实际电子系统的创建和操作实践表明，确定参数和因子的实际值以及热过程和温度分布是不确定的，并且可以在其变化的某些间隔内以相等的概率获取任何值。忽略热过程的间隔随机特性会导致设计错误和开发缺乏竞争力的电子系统。本文阐述了一种方法，该方法允许在电子系统中以输入因子和参数的区间不确定性为基础的非平稳区间随机热过程建模。该方法基于在输入数据的指定统计量度下获得热过程的非平稳统计量度（数学期望，方差，均方差和协方差）的方程式。本文提供了一个将详细方法应用于实际电子系统中的热过程的示例，该系统由带有印刷电路板的电子模块以及集成微电路，电阻器和安装在其上的其他电子组件组成。输入数据的指定统计量度下热过程的均方差和协方差。本文提供了一个将详细方法应用于实际电子系统中的热过程的示例，该系统由带有印刷电路板的电子模块以及集成微电路，电阻器和安装在其上的其他电子组件组成。输入数据的指定统计量度下热过程的均方差和协方差。本文提供了一个将详细方法应用于实际电子系统中的热过程的示例，该系统由带有印刷电路板的电子模块以及集成微电路，电阻器和安装在其上的其他电子组件组成。