Abstract—

In this study the possible region of the impact of the dangerous Apophis asteroid with Earth in 2036 according to the asteroid orbit of 2005 is determined and studied. Algorithms are developed to searching the entire probable set of Apophis asteroid trajectories falling into Earth using Monte Carlo and gradient descent methods. For this set, the search was realized for several probable families of collisions with Earth in 2036 asteroid trajectories corresponding to subsets of the perigee distance of the Apophis orbit from the minimum possible distance, ~2069 km, to the maximum corresponding to touching Earth’s surface, ~6376 km. A mapping of the entire set of trajectories falling onto Earth’s surface was obtained, as well as a collisional band was also constructed on the world map. The features of this collisional path and the properties of collision trajectories of Apophis were studied. A comparison of the results of this study with others is given.

中文翻译：

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2036年阿波菲斯小行星撞击地球可能区域的特征研究

摘要-

在这项研究中，根据2005年的小行星轨道，确定并研究了危险的Apophis小行星与地球在2036年碰撞的可能区域。开发了算法，以使用蒙特卡洛（Monte Carlo）和梯度下降法搜索落入地球的Apophis小行星轨迹的整个可能集合。在该集合中，实现了对2036小行星轨迹与地球碰撞的几个可能的族的搜索，这些轨迹对应于Apophis轨道近地点距离的子集，从最小可能距离〜2069 km到最大对应于接触地球表面的距离， 〜6376公里 获得了落到地球表面的整个轨迹的映射，并且还在世界地图上构造了碰撞带。研究了该碰撞路径的特征以及Apophis的碰撞轨迹特性。将该研究结果与其他研究结果进行比较。