ABSTRACT A perspective is given on human-induced climate change, contrasting two complementary approaches. The first is the conventional approach of using climate models as a means for developing understanding of the climate system variations and for projections of the future. Climate models have improved enormously, but even with the biggest supercomputers, models cannot resolve scales needed to depict many important phenomena. Major challenges remain in addressing chaotic natural weather and climate variability, and processing huge volumes of data. The second is an approach based upon understanding the changing Earth's energy imbalance (EEI) and tracking the consequences through the flows of energy through the climate system. A new assessment is given of the EEI through estimates of the uptake of heat by glaciers and ice sheets, land, and the oceans, and implications for the hydrological cycle. The oceans take up 93% of EEI of 0.9 ± 0.2 W m−2 (or 430 TW). Climate change is already readily apparent, with major consequences and costs.

中文翻译：

---

通过地球的能量流动了解气候变化

摘要 对人为引起的气候变化给出了一个观点，对比了两种互补的方法。第一个是使用气候模型作为发展对气候系统变化的理解和预测未来的手段的传统方法。气候模型已经有了很大改进，但即使有最大的超级计算机，模型也无法解决描述许多重要现象所需的尺度。在解决混乱的自然天气和气候变化以及处理大量数据方面仍然存在主要挑战。第二种方法是基于了解不断变化的地球能量不平衡 (EEI) 并通过气候系统中的能量流动来跟踪后果的方法。通过对冰川和冰盖、土地、和海洋，以及对水文循环的影响。海洋占 0.9 ± 0.2 W m-2（或 430 TW）的 EEI 的 93%。气候变化已经很明显，带来了重大后果和代价。