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The effects of model misspecification on shelf-life prediction of nano-sols under pH acceleration
Quality Technology and Quantitative Management ( IF 2.231 ) Pub Date : 2019-06-26 , DOI: 10.1080/16843703.2019.1630907
Sheng-Tsaing Tseng; Yu-Cheng Yao; David Shan Hill Wong

Shelf-life prediction of liquid-type (such as nano-sol) products is an interesting research topic. Recently, a pH acceleration method has been proposed in the literature to address the shelf-life prediction of nano-sol. The time evolution of particle-size distribution was obtained and modelled. There are two approaches for modelling the particle-size distribution, either by using a parametric approach (mixture-normal distribution) or a distribution-free approach. The main goal of this study is to quantify the seriousness of model misspecification on the shelf-life prediction when the true particle-size distribution follows a mixture-normal distribution, but wrongly treated it by a distribution-free model. The results demonstrated that the relative bias of shelf-life prediction may be under-estimated up to 13.66%, while its relative variability may be seriously inflated up to 13.35 times by using a distribution-free approach. The study shows that these effects of model misspecification are moderately large and cannot be neglected even when the sample size and the measurement times are small.
更新日期:2019-06-26

 

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