ABSTRACT Herbicide resistance has repeatedly developed under intensive herbicidal weed management regimes globally with 255 species having resistant biotypes. In New Zealand, since 1979, resistance was found in 13 taxa, with >25 herbicides in 8 chemical classes showing reduced effectiveness (i.e. HRAC groups A, B, C, D, F, G, H, N and O). Cases included weeds in turf, pastures, orchards, vineyards, forage and arable crops. Surprisingly little is known about the spatial extent or frequency of this problem in New Zealand. We estimate that 14,000 farms have land-use histories like those favouring herbicide resistance historically. Sampling simulations of ≥10% farms provided good estimates of resistance prevalence for most regions and crop types. Acceptable sampling rates varied with target population size, actual resistance prevalence, and detection certainty. Our simulations provide a sobering caution regarding our ability to delimit the problem cheaply or accurately. Detection rates lower than 75% always give imprecise prevalence estimates. Sampling and screening involved 7.4 h labour and 27 km of travel costing $759 NZD per farm. Sampling 10% of farms would cost >$1 million NZD if lower risk farms were excluded, or >$3 million in exhaustive surveys. Regional farm and industry breakdowns could guide cost-sharing arrangements for surveys.

中文翻译：

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与调查新西兰除草剂抗性程度相关的成本和风险

摘要 在全球强化除草杂草管理制度下，除草剂抗性一再发展，有 255 个物种具有抗性生物型。在新西兰，自 1979 年以来，在 13 个分类群中发现了抗药性，其中 8 个化学类别中的 25 种以上的除草剂的有效性降低（即 HRAC 组 A、B、C、D、F、G、H、N 和 O）。案例包括草皮、牧场、果园、葡萄园、饲料和可耕作物中的杂草。令人惊讶的是，关于这个问题在新西兰的空间范围或频率知之甚少。我们估计有 14,000 个农场的土地使用历史与历史上支持除草剂抗性的农场类似。≥ 10% 农场的抽样模拟为大多数地区和作物类型的抗药性流行提供了良好的估计。可接受的抽样率随目标人群规模、实际耐药率、和检测确定性。我们的模拟对我们廉价或准确地界定问题的能力提出了清醒的警告。低于 75% 的检出率总是给出不精确的流行率估计。采样和筛选涉及 7.4 小时的人工和 27 公里的旅行，每个农场的成本为 759 新西兰元。如果排除风险较低的农场，对 10% 的农场进行抽样将花费超过 100 万新西兰元，或者在详尽调查中花费超过 300 万美元。区域农场和行业细分可以指导调查的成本分摊安排。如果排除低风险农场，则为 100 万新西兰元，或在详尽调查中超过 300 万美元。区域农场和行业细分可以指导调查的成本分摊安排。如果排除低风险农场，则为 100 万新西兰元，或在详尽调查中超过 300 万美元。区域农场和行业细分可以指导调查的成本分摊安排。