ABSTRACT To procure products and materials in the context of modern, convoluted supply chains, companies need to consider a variety of available options regarding trading partners, products, materials and services, as well as deal with changing circumstances. Therefore, they seek for solutions that enable them to increase their efficiency, improve the effectiveness of collaboration with trading partners, deal with unexpected events and make proactive decisions. To address these issues, this paper focuses on the purchasing process and proposes an approach that enhances decision making, leading to proactive actions/recommendations to ensure cost-effectiveness. It supports selection of partners, monitors events pertaining to the purchasing process and enables proactive cost processing for potential supplier/shipper reconsideration, order cancellation or continuation. To enable proactive cost handling, we adopt and use the framework ‘detect – forecast – decide – act’. To support forecast and represent the causal relationship between events and supply chain actors, we use a Bayes Network. Finally, to verify the effectiveness of our proposed model, we develop a system and test it experimentally, through numerical simulation. Our results show that our proactive decision making method can lead to improved order efficiency, agility and cost management.

中文翻译：

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供应链采购中的主动决策

摘要 为了在现代复杂的供应链背景下采购产品和材料，公司需要考虑有关贸易伙伴、产品、材料和服务的各种可用选项，并应对不断变化的环境。因此，他们寻求解决方案，使他们能够提高效率、提高与贸易伙伴协作的效率、处理意外事件并做出主动决策。为了解决这些问题，本文重点关注采购流程，并提出了一种增强决策制定的方法，从而采取主动行动/建议以确保成本效益。它支持选择合作伙伴，监控与采购流程有关的事件，并为潜在的供应商/托运人重新考虑启用主动成本处理，订单取消或继续。为了实现主动成本处理，我们采用并使用了“检测-预测-决定-行动”框架。为了支持预测并表示事件与供应链参与者之间的因果关系，我们使用了贝叶斯网络。最后，为了验证我们提出的模型的有效性，我们开发了一个系统并通过数值模拟对其进行了实验测试。我们的结果表明，我们的主动决策方法可以提高订单效率、敏捷性和成本管理。我们开发了一个系统并通过数值模拟对其进行了实验测试。我们的结果表明，我们的主动决策方法可以提高订单效率、敏捷性和成本管理。我们开发了一个系统并通过数值模拟对其进行了实验测试。我们的结果表明，我们的主动决策方法可以提高订单效率、敏捷性和成本管理。