ABSTRACT

Modelling has been used extensively by all national governments and the World Health Organisation in deciding on the best strategies to pursue in mitigating the effects of COVID-19. Principally these have been epidemiological models aimed at understanding the spread of the disease and the impacts of different interventions. But a global pandemic generates a large number of problems and questions, not just those related to disease transmission, and each requires a different model to find the best solution. In this article we identify challenges resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic and discuss how simulation modelling could help to support decision-makers in making the most informed decisions. Modellers should see the article as a call to arms and decision-makers as a guide to what support is available from the simulation community.

摘要

所有国家政府和世界卫生组织已广泛使用该模型来确定减轻COVID-19影响的最佳策略。主要是流行病学模型，旨在了解疾病的传播和不同干预措施的影响。但是，全球大流行不仅会引起与疾病传播相关的问题，还会产生大量问题，并且每个问题和问题都需要不同的模型来找到最佳解决方案。在本文中，我们确定了COVID-19大流行带来的挑战，并讨论了模拟建模如何帮助决策者做出最明智的决策。建模人员应将本文视为对武器和决策者的呼吁，作为对模拟社区可提供的支持的指南。