ABSTRACT

The purpose of this study is to identify the issues related to implementation process of “European Agreement on the International Transport of Dangerous Goods by Road (ADR)” regulations in Turkey over a system dynamics model. The proposed model is used for assessing potential impacts of relevant regulations on dangerous goods transportation sector, in terms of road safety, operational effects, and economical consequences. We found that the incident rates and number of casualties fall rapidly because of the safety measures brought by ADR. However, the expected decrease in accident costs is far below the expected additional operational costs that ADR brings. Our results contribute to the literature by providing a system dynamics based framework for analysis of integration issues related to DG transportation regulations, which would further serve for building up of the strategies related to local, national and international policies.

摘要

本研究的目的是通过系统动力学模型确定与土耳其《欧洲危险货物国际公路运输协议 (ADR)》法规实施过程相关的问题。该模型用于评估相关法规对危险品运输部门的潜在影响，包括道路安全、运营效果和经济后果。我们发现由于ADR带来的安全措施，事故率和伤亡人数迅速下降。然而，事故成本的预期下降远低于 ADR 带来的预期额外运营成本。我们的结果通过提供一个基于系统动力学的框架来分析与 DG 运输法规相关的集成问题，从而为文献做出贡献，