ABSTRACT

Today natural water resources are becoming scarce, both due to global climate change but also due to irresponsible behaviour of human beings. Lakes are among the most delicate aquatic systems due to their limited size. The objective of this paper is to propose a System Dynamics model, employed in a real case study regarding the city of Rome and one of its water reserves, the Bracciano Lake, for the evaluation of different strategies and policies to reduce environmental impacts, considering different climatic and context scenarios. The results indicate that, as the system is currently exposed to a high risk of ecological disaster, the situation might worsen, and the disaster effectively happen. Simulation models may help agencies and administrations to explore policies and find solutions to address this fundamental problem, that may become even worst over the next years, given the potential severe consequences deriving from the current global warming trends.

摘要

今天，由于全球气候变化以及人类不负责任的行为，自然水资源变得越来越稀缺。湖泊因其有限的面积而成为最精致的水生系统之一。本文的目的是提出一个系统动力学模型，用于有关罗马市及其水储备之一的布拉恰诺湖的实际案例研究中，以评估不同的策略和政策以减少环境影响，并考虑不同的因素气候和情境场景。结果表明，由于该系统当前面临高风险的生态灾难，因此情况可能会恶化，并且灾难会有效地发生。仿真模型可以帮助机构和主管部门探索政策并找到解决方案，以解决这一基本问题，