The Eurasian Lynx (Lynx lynx) is the biggest small cat inhabiting Iran. However, there is little knowledge about its distribution and conservation status. In this study, the maximum entropy approach was applied to relate presence records of the species to bioclimatic conditions of Iran. The current model was projected under eight different climate change scenarios to predict the future status of Eurasian Lynx distribution in 2050 and 2070. Results indicated that lynx favours habitats with low temperature, low variations in precipitation and relatively high amount of precipitation in driest season. Currently, 16% of the country area is suitable for the lynx and 10% of these suitable habitats is located inside the conservation area network. Under the lowest and highest carbon dioxide emission scenarios, 26 to 73 percent of suitable habitats will become unsuitable. Most of the remained suitable habitats for the lynx in the future are located in the north western of Iran, which is part of the Irano-Anatolian hotspot. There is an essential need to adapt the conservation area network to climate change to better conserve the lynx in Iran.

中文翻译：

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气候变化对欧亚猞猁（Lynx lynx）在伊朗（哺乳动物：猫科）分布的潜在影响

欧亚猞猁（Lynx lynx）是伊朗最大的小型猫科动物。然而，对其分布和保护状况知之甚少。在这项研究中，最大熵方法被应用于将物种的存在记录与伊朗的生物气候条件联系起来。目前的模型在八种不同的气候变化情景下进行预测，以预测 2050 年和 2070 年欧亚猞猁分布的未来状况。结果表明，猞猁偏爱温度低、降水变化小、最干旱季节降水量相对较高的栖息地。目前，16% 的乡村区域适合猞猁，其中 10% 的适宜栖息地位于保护区网络内。在最低和最高二氧化碳排放情景下，26% 到 73% 的适宜栖息地将变得不适宜。未来大部分仍然适合猞猁的栖息地位于伊朗西北部，这是伊朗-安纳托利亚热点的一部分。必须使保护区网络适应气候变化，以更好地保护伊朗的猞猁。