A multiple state model describes the transitions of the disability risk among the states of active, inactive and dead. Ideally, estimations of transition probabilities and transition intensities rely on longitudinal data; however, most of the national surveys of disability are based on cross-sectional data measuring the disabled status of an individual at one point in time. This paper aims to propose a generic method of the estimation of the expected transition probabilities when the model allows recovery from disability using the UK cross-sectional data. The disability prevalence rates are modelled by taking into consideration the effect of age and time. Under some plausible assumptions concerning the death rates among inactive and active people, the estimated prevalence rates of disability are used to decompose survival probabilities in each state.

中文翻译：

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基于横断面数据的劳动年龄残疾人多状态模型

多状态模型描述了残疾风险在活动、非活动和死亡状态之间的转换。理想情况下，转移概率和转移强度的估计依赖于纵向数据；然而，大多数全国残疾调查都是基于衡量某个时间点个人残疾状况的横断面数据。本文旨在提出一种通用方法，当模型允许使用英国横截面数据从残疾中恢复时，估计预期转移概率。残疾患病率是通过考虑年龄和时间的影响来建模的。在一些关于不活跃和活跃人群死亡率的合理假设下，