With growing city density and mass gatherings held all over the world in urban spaces, crowd disasters have been happening each year. In considering the avoidance of crowd disasters and the reduction of fatalities, it is important to analyze the efficient spatial layout of the public space in situations of high crowd density. Compared with traditional empirical design methods, computational approaches have better abilities for quantitative analysis and are gradually being adopted in the planning and management of the urban public space. In this paper, we investigated the official documents, publicly available videos, and materials of the Shanghai waterfront crowd disaster which happened on December 31, 2014. Based on the investigation, a detailed site survey was conducted and pedestrian flow data were acquired. To test the influence of different spatial layouts, an agent-based simulator is built, following the ASPFver4.0 (Agent Simulator of Pedestrian Flow) pedestrian walking rules. With the surveyed pedestrian flow data, the original spatial layout of the Shanghai Bund waterfront together with five other comparison scenarios are tested, including both space design and crowd management improvements. In the simulation results, the efficiencies of different space design and crowd management solutions are compared. The results show that even simple crowd control measures such as capacity reserve and more proper route planning will allow for a positive improvement in crowd safety. The results also compare the efficiency of different spatial operations and give general suggestions to the problems urban public space designers should consider in high-density environments.

中文翻译：

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基于智能体的模拟在上海外滩滨水人群灾害的公共空间设计中的应用

随着城市密度的增加和世界各地在城市空间举行的群众集会，人群灾难每年都在发生。在考虑避免人群灾难和减少死亡人数时，重要的是分析高人群密度情况下公共空间的有效空间布局。与传统的实证设计方法相比，计算方法具有更好的定量分析能力，并逐渐被应用于城市公共空间的规划和管理中。在本文中，我们调查了2014年12月31日发生的上海滨水人群灾害的官方文件、公开视频和资料。在调查的基础上，进行了详细的现场调查，并获取了人流数据。为了测试不同空间布局的影响，按照 ASPFver4.0（Agent Simulator of Pedestrian Flow）行人步行规则构建了一个基于代理的模拟器。使用调查的人流数据，测试了上海外滩滨水区的原始空间布局以及其他五个比较场景，包括空间设计和人群管理改进。在仿真结果中，比较了不同空间设计和人群管理解决方案的效率。结果表明，即使是简单的人群控制措施，例如容量储备和更适当的路线规划，也可以积极改善人群安全。