SummaryGalliformes are one of the most threatened groups of birds in South-East Asia, with 27% of the species threatened with extinction. Long term population viability and extinction probability studies, at different levels of threat and management, are lacking due to weak life history data. This study aimed to define the long-term viability and extinction risk of two populations of the endangered Green Peafowl Pavo muticus, facing different threat and protection levels, using Bayesian Population Viability Analysis (BPVA), which requires less data than traditional methods. The results showed an increasing trend in the Green Peafowl population in HuaiKhaKhaeng Wildlife Sanctuary (western Thailand), with a high protection level and low disturbance and high probability of assuring persistence for the next 100 years. By contrast, the population in YokDon National Park (south-central Vietnam), with a high habitat disturbance level and significant hunting pressure, is predicted to decline and has a high probability (99%) of extinction by 2097. Also, the BPVA showed minimum viable population (MVP) estimates of 250 and 450 calling males for the HuaiKhaKhaeng and YokDon populations respectively, assuring high probabilities of long-term persistence if the minimum numbers of males are available. The population size of 219 calling males at YokDon during the 2013 survey is lower than the MVP threshold of 450 calling males, which suggests the species has a low probability of long-term persistence in the area. Despite limited life history and population data, BPVA predicted the future of this population under site-specific conditions, and the results could be used to promote better management and population restoration.

中文翻译：

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较低水平的人为干扰与濒临灭绝的绿孔雀 Pavo muticus 种群的长期持续存在相对应

摘要鸡形目是东南亚最受威胁的鸟类之一，有 27% 的物种面临灭绝威胁。由于生活史数据薄弱，缺乏对不同威胁和管理水平的长期种群生存能力和灭绝概率研究。本研究旨在确定两个濒临灭绝的绿孔雀种群的长期生存能力和灭绝风险小孔雀，面对不同的威胁和保护级别，使用贝叶斯种群生存能力分析（BPVA），它比传统方法需要更少的数据。结果表明，HaiKhaKhaeng 野生动物保护区（泰国西部）的绿孔雀种群呈增加趋势，保护水平高，干扰低，保证未来 100 年持续存在的可能性高。相比之下，育顿国家公园（越南中南部）的栖息地干扰程度高，狩猎压力大，预计到 2097 年人口将减少，并有很高的概率（99%）灭绝。此外，BPVA 显示HuaiKhaKhaeng 和 YokDon 种群的最小可存活种群 (MVP) 估计分别为 250 和 450 个呼叫男性，如果有最低数量的男性，则确保长期坚持的高概率。在 2013 年调查期间，YokDon 的 219 只呼唤雄性种群规模低于 450 只呼唤雄性的 MVP 阈值，这表明该物种在该地区长期存在的可能性很低。尽管生活史和人口数据有限，BPVA 在特定地点的条件下预测了这一人口的未来，结果可用于促进更好的管理和人口恢复。