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The effect of imperfect memory recall on risk preferences
Journal of Behavioral Decision Making ( IF 1.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-05-12 , DOI: 10.1002/bdm.2185
Rafał Muda 1 , Paweł Niszczota 2 , Paweł Augustynowicz 3
Affiliation  

People often take on different levels of risk when deciding on future actions compared with when they take actions with immediate consequences. The presently reported research investigated how imperfect recall of previously chosen options influences temporal fluctuations in risk preferences. In two incentivized studies with a waiting time before decision resolution (a 4‐week waiting period from an initial decision), we observed that errors in the recall of previous choices played a substantial role in constructing risk preferences for choices that are usually resolved after a delay. More specifically, in a first study, we found that after a waiting period (i.e., after participants waited for their risky choices to be resolved), participants perceived that they took less risk during their initial choices than they actually did. Importantly, when asked about whether they would change their initial choices, participants declared that they would take riskier choices. In a second study, we tested directly whether such a shift in initial choices could also be demonstrated behaviorally. Results revealed that after beliefs about past choices were induced, participants changed their risk preferences in line with the information presented during belief induction.

中文翻译:

不完全的记忆回忆对风险偏好的影响

与采取直接后果的行动相比,人们在决定未来的行动时往往承受不同程度的风险。目前报道的研究调查了对先前选择的期权的不完全召回如何影响风险偏好的时间波动。在两项激励研究中,决策解决之前有等待时间(从初始决策开始需要等待4周),我们观察到,先前选择的回忆中的错误在构建通常优先考虑后解决的选择的风险偏好方面起着重要作用。延迟。更具体地说,在第一项研究中,我们发现在等待一段时间后(即,参与者等待他们的风险选择得到解决之后),参与者感觉到他们在初始选择期间承担的风险要比实际承担的风险少。重要的,当被问及是否会改变他们最初的选择时,参与者宣称他们会采取冒险的选择。在第二项研究中,我们直接测试了是否也可以通过行为证明初始选择的这种转变。结果显示,在诱导出对过去选择的信念后,参与者根据信念诱导过程中提供的信息改变了他们的风险偏好。
更新日期:2020-05-12
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