Abstract This paper studies the spatial-temporal hedging coordination problem. In the prefabricated housing production, the heavy double handling cost is the major reason that causes profit loss of project manager. The spatial-temporal method is capable of mitigating this double handling cost by reducing assembly time uncertainty and on-site congestion probability substantially. However, adopting hedging methods adds extra cost and pressure to the adopters. To encourage the building contractor who makes the temporal hedging decision to choose a larger assembly time hedging (ATH) amount, a hedging effort-sharing (HES) mechanism is proposed. In this research, we built an analytical model to investigate how HES mechanism affects spatial-temporal hedging decisions, the performance of the building contractor, project manager as well as the whole supply chain. Three scenarios with fixed HES terms under decentralized setting are examined: (I) Nash model, (II) Building contractor led Stackelberg model, and (III) Project manager led Stackelberg model. Closed-form results regarding the optimal spatial-temporal hedging decisions are obtained. Besides, we derive the threshold of the HES terms, under which a win-win coordination can be achieved. Furthermore, an integrated setting with negotiable HES terms is explored. We derive the optimal values of HES terms, which incents the individual optimal spatial-temporal hedging decisions identical with that obtained in the centralized setting. By conducting numerical studies, it is found that a higher site congestion probability and a lower demand uncertainty encourage the project manager to share more ATH effort, while a lower unit ATH cost and higher site space hedging effort-sharing rate entice the building contractor to burden more ATH effort. Surprisingly, in the proposed HES mechanism, the building contractor's profit is increasing in site congestion probability and the project manager's profit increases in the demand uncertainty.

中文翻译：

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装配式住宅生产中的时空对冲协调

摘要 本文研究了时空对冲协调问题。在装配式房屋生产中，沉重的双重搬运成本是造成项目经理利润损失的主要原因。时空方法能够通过大幅减少组装时间的不确定性和现场拥堵概率来减轻这种双重处理成本。然而，采用对冲方法给采用者增加了额外的成本和压力。为了鼓励做出临时对冲决策的建筑承包商选择更大的装配时间对冲 (ATH) 金额，提出了一种对冲努力分担 (HES) 机制。在这项研究中，我们建立了一个分析模型来研究 HES 机制如何影响时空对冲决策、建筑承包商的表现、项目经理以及整个供应链。检查了分散设置下具有固定 HES 条款的三种场景：（I）纳什模型，（II）建筑承包商主导的 Stackelberg 模型，以及（III）项目经理主导的 Stackelberg 模型。获得关于最优时空对冲决策的封闭形式的结果。此外，我们推导出了 HES 术语的阈值，在该阈值下可以实现双赢的协调。此外，还探索了具有可协商 HES 条款的集成环境。我们推导出 HES 项的最佳值，这会激励与集中设置中获得的相同的个人最佳时空对冲决策。通过进行数值研究，发现更高的站点拥堵概率和更低的需求不确定性鼓励项目经理分担更多的 ATH 工作，而较低的单位 ATH 成本和较高的场地空间对冲工作分摊率诱使建筑承包商承担更多的 ATH 工作。令人惊讶的是，在提议的 HES 机制中，建筑承包商的利润在场地拥堵概率中增加，而项目经理的利润在需求不确定性中增加。