Identifying the risks that could impact a low-carbon transition is a prerequisite to assessing and managing these risks. We systematically characterise risks associated with decarbonisation pathways in fifteen case studies conducted in twelve countries around the world. We find that stakeholders from business, government, NGOs, and others supplied some 40 % of these risk inputs, significantly widening the scope of risks considered by academics and experts. Overall, experts and academics consider more economic risks and assess these with quantitative methods and models, while other stakeholders consider political risks more. To avoid losing sight of risks that cannot be easily quantified and modelled, including some economic risks, impact assessment modelling should be complemented with qualitative research and active stakeholder engagement. A systematic risk elicitation facilitates communication with stakeholders, enables better risk mitigation, and increases the chance of a sustainable transition.

识别可能影响低碳转型的风险是评估和管理这些风险的前提。我们在全球十二个国家进行的十五个案例研究中，系统地表征了与脱碳途径相关的风险。我们发现，来自企业，政府，非政府组织和其他组织的利益相关者提供了大约40％的这些风险输入，从而大大拓宽了学者和专家考虑的风险范围。总体而言，专家和学者会考虑更多的经济风险，并使用定量方法和模型进行评估，而其他利益相关者则更多地考虑政治风险。为了避免忽视难以量化和建模的风险（包括某些经济风险），应在定性研究和利益相关者的积极参与下对影响评估建模进行补充。