As cattle movement data in the United States are scarce due to the absence of mandatory traceability programs, previous epidemic models for U.S. cattle production systems heavily rely on contact rates estimated based on expert opinions and survey data. These models are often based on static networks and ignore the sequence of movement, possibly overestimating the epidemic sizes. In this research, we adapt and employ an agent-based model that simulates beef cattle production and transportation in southwest Kansas to analyze the between-premises transmission of a highly contagious disease, the foot-and-mouth disease. First, we assess the impact of truck contamination on the disease transmission with the truck agent following an independent clean-infected-clean cycle. Second, we add an information-sharing functionality such that producers/packers can trace back and forward their trade records to inform their trade partners during outbreaks. Scenario analysis results show that including indirect contact routes between premises via truck movements can significantly increase the amplitude of disease spread, compared with equivalent scenarios that only consider animal movement. Mitigation strategies informed by information sharing can dramatically improve the system resilience against epidemics, highlighting the benefit of promoting information sharing in the cattle industry. In addition, we identify salient characteristics that must be considered when designing an information-sharing strategy, including the number of days to trace back and forward in the trade records and the role of different cattle supply chain stakeholders. Sensitivity analysis results show that epidemic sizes are sensitive to variations in parameters of fomite survival time and indirect contact transmission probability and future studies can focus on a more accurate estimation of these parameters.

中文翻译：

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建立有弹性的肉牛生产系统：卡车污染和信息共享对口蹄疫传播的影响

由于缺乏强制性的可追溯性程序，美国的牛只活动数据稀缺，因此以前美国牛只生产系统的流行模型在很大程度上依赖于根据专家意见和调查数据估算的接触率。这些模型通常基于静态网络，并且忽略运动顺序，可能会高估流行病的规模。在这项研究中，我们采用并采用基于代理的模型来模拟堪萨斯州西南部肉牛的生产和运输，以分析高度传染性疾病（口蹄疫）的场所间传播。首先，我们通过独立的清洁感染-清洁循环来评估卡车污染对卡车媒介对疾病传播的影响。第二，我们添加了信息共享功能，以便生产者/包装者可以追溯并转发其贸易记录，以在疫情爆发时通知其贸易伙伴。情景分析结果表明，与仅考虑动物活动的同等情景相比，通过卡车移动在房屋之间引入间接接触路线可以显着增加疾病传播的幅度。信息共享提供的缓解策略可以显着提高系统对流行病的适应力，突出了促进养牛业信息共享的好处。此外，我们还确定了设计信息共享策略时必须考虑的显着特征，包括在贸易记录中追溯的天数以及不同的牛供应链利益相关者的作用。敏感性分析结果表明，流行病的大小对毒气生存时间和间接接触传播概率参数的变化敏感，未来的研究可以集中在对这些参数的更准确估计上。