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Back to the basic: toward improvement of technoeconomic representation in integrated assessment models
Climatic Change ( IF 4.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-05-12 , DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02731-4
Hiroto Shiraki , Masahiro Sugiyama

With the shift of climate debate from understanding to actions, the use of integrated assessment models (IAMs) is gradually expanding. Since IAMs produce least-cost pathways, technoeconomic parameters constitute one of the basic parameters. Traditionally, IAMs dealt with technologies with slowly-changing, relatively homogeneous manner. Since technologies are rapidly evolving, and the pattern of technological development is regionally heterogeneous, the IAM community must embrace a new strategy to treat their underlying technoeconomic parameters. Here we illustrate such challenges by reviewing the treatment and performance of IAMs with respect to some of the rapidly changing technologies (e.g., solar, wind, and batteries). Our review shows that IAMs have difficulty in updating the cost of the rapidly changing technologies. We then articulate a new strategy, drawing upon the lesson from the current model intercomparison projects and climate sciences. We argue that a loose network of modeling groups across the globe should create a database of technological parameters in a standardized format and standard evaluation tool, perhaps to be facilitated by the IAM Consortium. Such a framework would contribute to the review of the progress toward the Paris Agreement goals.

中文翻译:

回归本源:提高综合评估模型中的技术经济代表性

随着气候辩论从理解转向行动,综合评估模型 (IAM) 的使用正在逐渐扩大。由于 IAM 产生成本最低的路径,技术经济参数构成了基本参数之一。传统上,IAM 以缓慢变化、相对同质的方式处理技术。由于技术发展迅速,而且技术发展模式因地区而异,IAM 社区必须采用新策略来处理其潜在的技术经济参数。在这里,我们通过回顾 IAM 在一些快速变化的技术(例如太阳能、风能和电池)方面的处理和性能来说明这些挑战。我们的审查表明,IAM 难以更新快速变化的技术的成本。然后,我们从当前模式比对项目和气候科学中汲取教训,阐明了一项新战略。我们认为,全球建模小组的松散网络应该以标准化格式和标准评估工具创建技术参数数据库,这可能会得到 IAM 联盟的推动。这样的框架将有助于审查实现《巴黎协定》目标的进展。
更新日期:2020-05-12
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