Abstract The dominant effect of climate change in Africa will be in altered water balances. The objectives of this study were: 1) to assess the impact of climate change on soil water balance and maize production, 2) to evaluate the effect of tied-ridges and increased fertilizer use as potential adaptation options during 2021–2050 & 2066–2095 periods. The MarkSimGCM daily weather generator was used to generate projected climate data using the outputs from ECHAM5 and ensemble mean of six GCMs. AquaCrop model was used for modeling soil water balance and evaluating adaptation options. During the 2021–2050 & 2066–2095 projection periods, the maize growing season (March–September) reference evapotranspiration (ETo) increased by 5% and 14%, respectively. During the two projected periods, there was a decrease in runoff & transpiration and an increase in evaporation. The maize yield projected to decrease by about 9% during both periods. The combined effect of tied ridges and increased fertilizer under elevated CO2 concentration increased the crop yield by almost 90% during the 2021–2050 climate projection periods. The yield increase was a result of decreased evaporation and runoff and an increase in transpiration from tied ridges and increased soil fertility as well as carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization effect.

中文翻译：

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气候变化对埃塞俄比亚裂谷旱地土壤水平衡、玉米生产和潜在适应措施的影响

摘要 非洲气候变化的主要影响将是水平衡的改变。本研究的目标是：1) 评估气候变化对土壤水平衡和玉米生产的影响，2) 评估系脊和增加肥料使用作为 2021-2050 年和 2066-2095 年潜在适应选择的影响期间。MarkSimGCM 每日天气生成器用于使用 ECHAM5 的输出和六个 GCM 的集合平均值生成预测的气候数据。AquaCrop 模型用于模拟土壤水平衡和评估适应选项。在 2021-2050 和 2066-2095 预测期内，玉米生长季节（3-9 月）参考蒸散量 (ETo) 分别增加了 5% 和 14%。在两个预测期间，径流和 蒸腾作用和蒸发量增加。在这两个时期，玉米产量预计将下降约 9%。在 2021 年至 2050 年的气候预测期内，在二氧化碳浓度升高的情况下，绑脊和增加肥料的综合作用使作物产量增加了近 90%。产量增加的原因是蒸发和径流减少，连带脊的蒸腾作用增加，土壤肥力增加以及二氧化碳 (CO2) 施肥效应。