A new methodology for quantitative risk assessment (QRA) integrated with dynamic simulation and accident simulation is proposed. The objective of this study is to discover inherent risks that are undetectable by conventional risk analysis methods based on steady-state conditions. The target process is the reactor section in the heavy oil desulfurization (HOD) process, which is likely to pose vast potential risks due to the high operating conditions of pressure and temperature. First, a dynamic simulation of a shut-down procedure was performed to observe the behavior of process variables using Aspen HYSYS V10, which is a commercially available process software. Based on the results of the dynamic simulation, several blind spots indicating a higher operating pressure than that in the steady-state simulation were identified. To assess the risks of the detected blind spots, a QRA was performed using the commercial software of SAFETI V8.22, which performs risk calculation based on consequence and frequency data. As a result of applying the proposed method to the HOD process, the risk assessment outcome was identified as intolerably risky unlike that of steady-state conditions, thereby indicating that dynamic simulations can serve as a method to spot inherent risks that are undetectable in steady-state conditions. In addition, mitigation procedures that reduce the risk of the process to a tolerable level are performed, thereby enabling a safer and more reliable process.

提出了一种结合动态仿真和事故仿真的量化风险评估新方法。这项研究的目的是发现基于稳态条件的常规风险分析方法无法检测到的固有风险。目标过程是重油脱硫（HOD）过程中的反应器段，由于压力和温度的高运行条件，这可能会带来巨大的潜在风险。首先，使用Aspen HYSYS V10（一种可商购的过程软件）对停机程序进行了动态仿真，以观察过程变量的行为。根据动态仿真的结果，确定了几个盲点，这些盲点表示的工作压力高于稳态仿真中的工作压力。为了评估检测到的盲点的风险，使用商业软件SAFETI V8.22执行了QRA，该软件根据结果和频率数据执行风险计算。将提出的方法应用于HOD流程的结果是，与稳态条件不同，该风险评估结果被确定为具有不可容忍的风险，从而表明动态模拟可以用作发现稳定状态下无法检测到的固有风险的方法。状态条件。另外，执行将过程风险降低到可容忍水平的缓解程序，从而实现更安全，更可靠的过程。将提出的方法应用于HOD流程的结果是，与稳态条件不同，该风险评估结果被确定为具有不可容忍的风险，从而表明动态模拟可以用作发现在稳态条件下无法检测到的固有风险的方法。状态条件。另外，执行将过程风险降低到可容忍水平的缓解程序，从而实现更安全，更可靠的过程。将提出的方法应用于HOD流程的结果是，与稳态条件不同，该风险评估结果被确定为具有不可容忍的风险，从而表明动态模拟可以用作发现在稳态条件下无法检测到的固有风险的方法。状态条件。另外，执行将过程风险降低到可容忍水平的缓解程序，从而实现更安全，更可靠的过程。