We provide an analysis of zooplankton distributions in the circumpolar Southern Ocean based on samples collected by the international SCAR Southern Ocean Continuous Plankton Recorder Survey (SO-CPR). We analysed SO-CPR measurements in relation to satellite and oceanographic model hind-cast data over the period 1997–2018. These environmental data were chlorophyll-a concentration, net primary productivity (VGPM model), sea-surface temperature (SST), mixed layer depth, sea ice and the spatial gradient of SST (as an indicator of ocean fronts). Boosted Regression Tree (BRT) models were used to extrapolate in space and time measurements of the abundances of six key taxonomic groups of zooplankton: Copepoda (Calanoida), Euphausiidae (numerically dominated in SO-CPR data by Thysanoessa macrura), Foraminifera, Fritillaria spp., Oithona similis, and pteropods. Based on the BRT models, we present predictions of the spatial and seasonal (October–March) environmental suitability for these groups in the Southern Ocean. Trend analysis suggests that between 1997 and 2018 the environmental suitability for copepods (both cyclopoid and calanoid), Foraminifera, and Fritillaria spp. has increased by 0.72% per year average, and at higher rates in frontal regions especially in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean. In contrast, for pteropods in some areas (particularly over the Ross Sea shelf) the environmental suitability has significantly worsened over the last 20 years.

我们根据国际SCAR南大洋连续性浮游生物记录仪调查（SO-CPR）收集的样本，对南极沿极地区的浮游动物分布进行了分析。我们分析了1997-2018年期间与卫星和海洋学模型后播数据相关的SO-CPR测量值。这些环境数据包括叶绿素a浓度，净初级生产力（VGPM模型），海面温度（SST），混合层深度，海冰和SST的空间梯度（作为海锋的指标）。增强回归树（BRT）模型用于对六个主要浮游生物分类群的丰度进行空间和时间测量外推：pe足类（Calanoida），Euphausiidae（在数量上以Thysanoessa macrura为主的SO-CPR数据），有孔虫，贝母属，Oithona similis和翼足类。基于BRT模型，我们提出了对南大洋这些群体的空间和季节（10月至3月）环境适应性的预测。趋势分析表明，1997年至2018年之间，pe足类动物（独眼巨人和类人猿），有孔虫和贝母的环境适宜性。平均每年以0.72％的速度增长，在额叶地区尤其是在南大洋的印度地区，增长率更高。相反，在过去20年中，对于某些地区的翼足类（特别是在罗斯海陆架上），环境适应性已大大恶化。