The fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda, is a highly invasive species native to North America that is rapidly spreading to other parts of the world. Since its first discovery outside its native range, the species has rapidly spread to more than 26 countries in Africa and has been recently discovered in India, demonstrating its high potential to spread and invade. This species can have massive damage to crops, especially maize, posing major socioeconomic challenges. While its spread is attributed to transportation in fruits and vegetables, its invasiveness is attributed to its high capacity to adapt in different environments. With expected climate change scenarios, it is possible that this species will invade other areas to the planet, thus increasing the damage to major agricultural crops. This paper aims to understand the global potential for the spread of the species and its associated impacts on major host plants, globally. For this, the article is based on modelling the distribution of species, combining records of occurrence of species globally and bioclimatic variables to identify the areas that are climatically suitable for species in present and future scenarios under climate change. Simulations indicate that there is an enormous climatic potential for the spread of the species, with potential increases between 12 and 44% in the future, mostly affecting border areas between the USA and Canada, Sub-Saharan Africa and central Europe. This spread will increase the potential for interactions between the fall armyworm and its main host plants, thus increasing the potential crop damage globally.

中文翻译：

---

秋粘虫、草地贪夜蛾（鳞翅目：夜蛾科）的全球生物气候适宜性，以及气候变化情景下与主要寄主作物的潜在共生性

秋季粘虫 Spodoptera frugiperda 是一种原产于北美的高度入侵物种，正在迅速蔓延到世界其他地区。自从首次在其原生范围之外发现以来，该物种已迅速传播到非洲的 26 个以上国家，最近又在印度被发现，显示出其传播和入侵的巨大潜力。该物种可能对农作物，尤其是玉米造成巨大损害，构成重大的社会经济挑战。虽然它的传播归因于水果和蔬菜的运输，但它的入侵性归因于它对不同环境的高适应能力。在预期的气候变化情景下，该物种可能会入侵地球的其他地区，从而增加对主要农作物的破坏。本文旨在了解该物种传播的全球潜力及其对全球主要寄主植物的相关影响。为此，本文基于对物种分布的建模，结合全球物种发生记录和生物气候变量来确定气候变化下当前和未来情景中气候适合物种的区域。模拟表明，该物种的传播具有巨大的气候潜力，未来可能增加 12% 至 44%，主要影响美国和加拿大、撒哈拉以南非洲和中欧之间的边境地区。这种传播将增加秋粘虫与其主要寄主植物之间相互作用的可能性，从而增加全球作物的潜在损害。