Few studies regarding the assessment of the growing season’s trends and the associated agro-climatic risks are focused on agro-ecosystems around forest reserve although adaptive extensive agriculture poses severe threats due to climate variability and change. This study aims at analyzing the evolution of agro-climatic characteristics to identify the associated risks. It firstly consisted in analyzing the temperatures within the period from 1960 to 2016 in the forest reserve of “Trois Rivières.” Secondly, the characteristics of the growing season and their distribution were analyzed. Statistic-based tests were further performed to identify major trends and breaks as well as the associated agro-climatic risks. Thus, the period from 2000 to 2016 generally presents wet conditions (increasing trends of Standardized Precipitation Index and rainy days) similar to the period of 1960 to 1975; which are separated by a relatively dry period (increasing trends of dry spells) from 1975 to 2000. Those facts reveals an apparent return to wet conditions after the 2000s which is coupled with the acceleration of warming resulting in the increase of minimum temperatures by 1.5 °C and the maximum by 1 °C. We also noticed a great variability of the dry spells within the growing season which has accentuated especially the risk of sowing failure (false start) by 56 to 74% and the yields failure risks by 52%. Our findings showed the degree to which farmers are affected by the realities of climate variability and change in "Trois Rivières" forest agro-ecosystems. That led farmers, mostly poor, to resort to extensive agriculture which unfortunately is the main cause of deforestation.

尽管适应性广泛农业由于气候多变性和变化而构成严重威胁，但很少有关于生长季节趋势及其相关农业气候风险评估的研究集中在森林保护区周围的农业生态系统上。这项研究旨在分析农业气候特征的演变，以确定相关的风险。它首先包括分析“ TroisRivières”森林保护区在1960年至2016年期间的温度。其次，分析了生长季节的特征及其分布。进一步进行了基于统计的检验，以识别主要趋势和中断以及相关的农业气候风险。从而，2000年至2016年期间通常呈现与1960年至1975年期间相似的潮湿条件（标准降水指数和雨天的增加趋势）; 从1975年到2000年，这是一个相对干燥的时期（干旱时期的趋势有所增加）。这些事实表明，在2000年代之后，明显恢复了湿润状态，再加上变暖的加速，导致最低温度提高了1.5° C，最高可降低1°C。我们还注意到，生长期内旱季的变化很大，尤其是播种失败（错误开始）的风险增加了56％至74％，单产失败的风险增加了52％。我们的研究结果表明，农民受“三河三角洲”森林农业生态系统气候变化和变化的现实影响的程度。