Pakistan holds a key position within the Indian–Eurasian collision zone and is a highly earthquake-prone country of South Asia. Besides the devastating earthquakes of Quetta 1935, Makran 1945 and Pattan 1974, the earthquakes that happened in Bhuj 2001, Kashmir 2005 and Hindu Kush 2015 are three typical examples of the new millennium. In this study, the earthquake probability and the return period for magnitude recurrence hazard have been analysed using a magnitude homogenous earthquake catalogue. In Gumbel’s theory of extreme values, the Gumbel III distribution has a vital role to play as far as seismic hazard analysis of any regional seismicity is concerned. The Gumbel III distribution is used here to estimate the upper bound magnitude (ω value) and other earthquake hazard parameters in and around Pakistan. This method is applied to the whole of Pakistan (23° N–39° N; 59° E–80° E) and shallow (0–70 km) and intermediate (70–300 km) depth earthquakes in the Hindu Kush region across the Afghanistan–Pakistan border over the period 1930–2007. From the entire Pakistan dataset, the ω value is estimated as 8.12 (± 0.59). Furthermore, intermediate earthquakes in Hindu Kush have a ω value of 8.15 (± 0.56) compared with 7.08 (± 0.92) for the shallow earthquakes in the Hindu Kush. From probabilistic analysis of a spatial matrix of cells, results of earthquake expected magnitude parameters are then calculated, mapped, contoured and discussed in the context of recognized seismotectonic zones (Hindu Kush, Karakorum–Himalaya, Chaman fault system and Makran–Kutch) which characterize the seismicity of Pakistan and the surrounding region (Afghanistan, Tajikistan and India).

中文翻译：

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巴基斯坦及其周边地区的地震活动度和地震危险性参数

巴基斯坦在印度与欧亚碰撞带中占有重要地位，并且是南亚地震频发的国家。除了Quetta 1935年，Makran 1945年和Pattan 1974年的毁灭性地震外，Bhuj 2001年，克什米尔2005年和Hindu Kush 2015年发生的地震是新千年的三个典型例子。在这项研究中，已使用震级均匀地震目录分析了震级复发危险的地震概率和返回期。在Gumbel极值理论中，就任何区域地震活动的地震危害分析而言，Gumbel III分布都起着至关重要的作用。此处使用Gumbel III分布来估计上限幅度（ω值）和巴基斯坦及其周围地区的其他地震灾害参数。该方法适用于整个兴都库什地区整个巴基斯坦（23°N–39°N； 59°E–80°E）和浅度（0–70 km）和中度（70–300 km）地震1930年至2007年之间的阿富汗-巴基斯坦边界。从整个巴基斯坦数据集中，ω值估计为8.12（±0.59）。此外，兴都库什的中级地震的ωHindu Kush的浅层地震的数值为8.15（±0.56），而7.08（±0.92）。通过对细胞空间矩阵的概率分析，然后在公认的地震构造带（印度都库什，喀喇昆仑－喜马拉雅山，查曼断层系统和马克兰－库奇）的背景下计算，映射，绘制轮廓和讨论地震预期震级参数的结果巴基斯坦及其周边地区（阿富汗，塔吉克斯坦和印度）的地震活动。