Abstract This study investigates the variability of the number of ignitions following hypothetical Nankai Trough earthquakes for municipal fire departments across Japan. An empirical equation for predicting the number of ignitions following earthquake was used in combination with an empirical ground motion prediction equation. 72 hypothetical earthquake scenarios were considered by varying earthquake magnitude, source area, and season and hour of occurrence. The conditional exceedance probability curve of the number of ignitions following earthquake was estimated for each municipal fire department in order to investigate how frequently the number of ignitions exceeds the firefighting capability (here, the number of fire engines divided by 3) when all possible earthquake scenarios are considered. For 27 in 731 municipal fire departments, the number of ignitions was presumed to exceed the firefighting capability with a probability of 10% or more. Therefore, measures need to be taken, such as enhancing firefighting capability, installing household ignition prevention devices, and reducing densely built-up areas, because of the concern that some of ignitions may develop into large-scale urban fires. The results are useful for understanding of the vulnerability of municipal fire departments to ignitions following a future Nankai Trough earthquake and improving preparedness.

中文翻译：

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日本南海海槽俯冲带发生特大地震后消防部门点火脆弱性的概率分析

摘要 本研究调查了日本各地市政消防部门假设发生南海海槽地震后点火次数的变化。用于预测地震后点火次数的经验方程与经验地震动预测方程结合使用。根据不同的地震震级、震源区、发生季节和时间，考虑了 72 种假设的地震情景。为了调查在所有可能的地震情景下，点火次数超过消防能力（这里是消防车的数量除以 3）的频率，每个市消防部门都估算了地震后点火次数的条件超过概率曲线被考虑。731个市消防部门中的27个，假设点火次数超过消防能力的概率为 10% 或更多。因此，需要采取措施，如提高消防能力，安装家用防燃装置，减少人口密集区，因为担心部分火灾可能发展成大规模的城市火灾。研究结果有助于了解未来南海海槽地震后市政消防部门对点火的脆弱性并提高准备工作。因为担心一些点火可能会发展成大规模的城市火灾。研究结果有助于了解未来南海海槽地震后市政消防部门对点火的脆弱性并提高准备工作。因为担心一些点火可能会发展成大规模的城市火灾。研究结果有助于了解未来南海海槽地震后市政消防部门对点火的脆弱性并提高准备工作。