Water withdrawal and changes in hydrologic fluxes have lowered the level of Urmia Lake in Iran, adversely impacting its ecosystem. The continued lowering of the Urmia Lake water level would put Iran's most important aquatic ecosystem in danger of extinction. Therefore, there is an urgent need for management of water withdrawals and for reduction of water use in upstream dams and rivers to halt its continuing decline and allow storage recovery. The Urmia Lake basin was herein modelled with system dynamics (SD) to assess the effects of modifying reservoir operation and water use management on the sustainability of Urmia Lake storage. The model performance was evaluated with the root mean square error (RMSE) and the correlation coefficient (R²). The results show that SD with RMSE = 18.0 (10⁶ m³) and R² = 0.952 is accurate in simulating Urmia Lake storage. Evaluation of the impacts of several scenarios of agricultural water use on lake storage indicates that reductions in the agricultural sector appear inevitable to restore the water balance of Urmia Lake. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

中文翻译：

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系统动力学应用于湖泊水管理*

取水和水文通量的变化降低了伊朗乌尔米亚湖的水位，对其生态系统产生了不利影响。乌尔米亚湖水位的持续下降将使伊朗最重要的水生生态系统面临灭绝的危险。因此，迫切需要管理取水量并减少上游水坝和河流的用水量，以制止其持续下降并恢复储存。这里用系统动力学（SD）对Urmia湖流域建模，以评估修改水库运行和用水管理对Urmia Lake蓄水可持续性的影响。通过均方根误差（RMSE ）和相关系数R ²评估模型性能）。结果表明，RMSE = 18.0（10 ⁶ m ³）和R ² = 0.952的SD在模拟Urmia Lake蓄水方面是准确的。对几种农业用水情景对湖泊蓄水的影响进行的评估表明，减少农业部门似乎是不可避免的，以恢复乌尔米亚湖的水平衡。分级为4 +©2020 John Wiley＆Sons，Ltd.